Joe’s Weather Blog: Veterans Day storm means wind…maybe some rain (TUE-11/10)

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Good afternoon…wanted to take a little extra time this morning/afternoon to look at the data so that I had the clearest picture about tomorrow’s weather. Things are coming into focus about the situation tomorrow and I continue to feel that the risk of severe weather in KC and westwards is minimal at this point while areas farther east and northeast of KC do have somewhat higher chances. This is what I’ve been saying for several days and I see no reason to change my thinking based on today’s information. If anything today’s data seems to confirm my thoughts a little more.

Forecast:

This afternoon: Breezy with mixed clouds and sunshine. More sun south of I-70 and more clouds farther into NW MO and north MO. Winds may gust to around 25 MPH or so. Highs today are well into the 60s

Tonight: Increasing clouds and breezy with milder lows in the 50s

Tomorrow: Mainly cloudy through early afternoon with some fast moving showers/patches of rain possible. Highs in the 60s…windy as well through out the day with gusts to 45 MPH possible in the afternoon. We should see some clearing in the afternoon and may have sunshine before another batch of clouds rotates through.

Thursday: Breezy and seasonable with highs in the mid 50s

Discussion:

It’s actually turning into a brighter day than I expected yesterday. Aside from the breeze picking up it really is another nice day out there…and it’s going to be another day with highs well above average for mid-November. Our low was 42°. The average high today is 56° so we’ll be close to 10° above that this afternoon.

Here is the latest satellite picture…showing the moisture…

 

Certainly more present in NE KS and N MO…at least as of early this afternoon.

By this tome tomorrow…a strong surface storm will be intensifying in the Plains. This is the storm that we’ve been writing/talking about for quite some time. It’s now located in the western part of the country…and it will be kicking out through the Plains states tomorrow into Thursday as it heads towards the central Lakes region. The water vapor loop (which enhances the “look” of the moisture in the air) clearly shows the storm’s location

 

The storm is responsible for a “big” snow in Reno, NV yesterday. I think they had more snow yesterday than all of last year!

At the surface, a storm will be forming tonight across the eastern Plains of CO and the western Plains. This storm will be moving towards the east and ENE through SE NE and into IA tomorrow. Then heading towards the Green Bay area.

 

As I’ve written for several days, as the storm moves closer to KC…increasing south winds will suck moisture northwards towards the storms circulation. The moisture (at least at the surface) is towards the south of KC right now but moving north. Here is the 12 PM surface map showing the conditions south of KC. Temperatures are in RED and more importantly for this discussion the dew points are in GREEN. Notice dew points are well into the 50s/60s farther south of KC and with the winds transporting that moisture northwards that air is coming our way through tomorrow mid-day or so.

 

With the moisture also comes low clouds…and lots of them. The moisture is really only going to be about 5000′ thick or so…but yet it should be enough to generate areas of showers and perhaps a fast moving thunderstorm tomorrow into the lunch hour before things moves away from the KC area proper.

Here is the hi-res NAM model via NEXLAB showing the development and movement of the rain from the storm…

 

You can see (I realize that the loop is fast moving) that the better rain/storms don’t organize till they’re closer to the MO highway 65 corridor out towards Marshall and Sedalia, MO. Another are to watch for severe storms may be north of 36 highway into north-central MO.

The SPC is watching areas, in particular farther east of KC for the higher potential of severe storms…

MO_swody2

We are under a slight risk for the vast majority of the KC area. Notice that slight risk extends only about 20 miles into KS the KS side…and I wouldn’t be surprised if the reality is that things end up being about 50 miles farther east in the end. As far as the colors go…here is a tweet from the NWS in Des Moines.

Once again, while there may be some cooler air coming behind this system for THU>FRI…we’re talking jsut a return to typical mid-November temperatures.

By the way, as is typical for a storm like this during November, on the backside of the storm there will be some heavy snow and with the wind blowing…blizzard conditions are possible in parts of the western Plains.

This area is going to be on the NW side of the upper level storm. The storm will be generating it’s own cold air through the strong dynamics of the system.

Longer term a rather active pattern is expected next week with a couple of strong systems possible TUE then again on THU of next week. The potential of above average rainfall is increasing for next week.

So again as I wrote about yesterday…main effects from the storm are…winds…clouds…quick hitting showers…storms farther east/NE of KC…

Have a great afternoon and another update with any necessary change(s) will be coming tomorrow morning.

Joe

 

 

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