Joe’s Weather Blog: Rain starts to fade + weekend cold shot (TUE-11/17)

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Good morning…I want to remind all the blog readers to put Wednesday 11/25 on your calendar for watching/reading the Winter Weather Forecast on Fox 4 and fox4kc.com.

It’s always nice when the forecast from days ago goes off without too many hitches. Remember our job, from that far away, is often to predict what will happen days away, when the reality of the moment when that prediction is made, is that what you’re predicting doesn’t even exist in most cases. It’s a wordy way of explaining that we try and predict things that don’t exist. So far the rain timing and the amounts of rain have been just about spot-on.  The one thing that may not occur locally today is the clearing skies…it appears the storm has slowed down enough and as a result we’re going to have clouds for the day. This should keep temperatures in the 60-65° range.

Forecast:

Today: Rain this morning and even showers this afternoon. It will overall be a wet day unlike yesterday that was essentially dry. Temperatures today will struggle with highs closer to about 62° (if that warm). While the rain is not going to be too heavy in the KC area…it will continue to be welcome as we break the back on the moderate drought conditions that developed in the region over the last couple of months.

Tonight: Clearing skies and turning cooler towards daybreak. Temperatures may well stay in the 50s for most of the evening and then start dropping a bit after 12AM.

Tomorrow: Variable clouds with perhaps a scattered AM shower. Highs in the 50s

Discussion:

About the only change in the data this morning is that the storm that is moving through the Plains states has slowed down somewhat. It will be remembered for sure in the southern Plains for an impressive (for November) tornado outbreak. Our twitter feed (@fox4wx) has had quite a few rather impressive shots of night-time tornadoes from KS through TX during the overnight hours.

This, at least to me, is one of the best tornado shots of the year…she got the whole cell in with the tornado at the base of it…the cell itself wasn’t the tallest storm but it shows that even the less vertical storms can produce tornadoes when there is enough wind shear as there was last night down across the SW Plains and southern Plains.

 

Today the threat shifts towards Dixie…

 

On the backside of the storm…there is snow coming down. For far NW KS…the snow is pretty impressive…

 

In CO…much the same…although the mountains there create havoc when it comes to “snow shadows”. Boulder, CO in particular had winds coming down the mountain (downsloping) which kept their temperatures above freezing and as a result got very little snow from this…

 

Here is a look at the Boulder area at sunrise…there was bigger snow to the north/east/south than actually in Boulder itself.

As far as our weather goes…another look at the radar from Pleasant Hill, MO

 

and the bigger picture…where you can see the returns, which are snow out west.

 

The rain/snow line appears to be near the CO/KS border area.

The next big weather feature of note is the cold shot of air that will come in later Friday into SUN AM. This will deliver the 1st hard freeze to the region and one of the later ones in KC weather history. Assuming there are no clouds and the winds don’t “mess” things up…we should see lows Sunday AM down to 20-25°. This will be somewhere near the TOP 10 in terms of the latest hard freeze in KC weather history. It will either occur just before 12AM on the 21st (SAT) or around daybreak on the 22nd (SUN)

Capture

So we have that going for us…I continue to feel lows SUN AM may drop to near 20° with teens possible across N MO

The cold won’t last but for a few days as milder air will again come up as the cold air mass moves away Sunday night into Monday. There could be another push towards 60°+ sometime next week because it appears the next shot of cold weather will be delayed till near Thanksgiving. If we can get everything to work out we may be in good shape for the Plaza lighting ceremony as well as Thanksgiving day itself…however that is a long ways off to be that specific at this point.

That’s it for today…another blog update will come out tomorrow.

Joe

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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