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Joe’s Weather Blog: The chill has arrived…Thanksgiving concerns (SAT-11/21)

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Good afternoon…as I’ve mentioned…and it might be a good idea to write yourself a little note or put a reminder on your cell phone…the winter weather forecast is coming on Wednesday night during the evening newscasts. I will have a write-up for you on the weather blog sometime that day before it goes to air.

Forecast:

Tonight: Clear skies early then becoming partly cloudy. These clouds will play a huge role in the overnight forecast. The faster they move in and then out…assuming we’re clear at daybreak Sunday…would allow temperatures to drop to 18-23°. The longer the clouds hang in our skies the better chances of us seeing lows closer to 25°. Winds will subside as well but switch towards the SW

Sunday: Sunny and not as cold with highs well into the 40s. Winds will start to increase a bit in the afternoon out of the west at 10-15 MPH

Monday: Sunny and warmer with highs well into the 50s.

Discussion:

Last Sunday my forecasted high today I think was in the upper 30s to near 40°. For a forecast made 6 days out with the strongest cold front of the season coming…I knew that today was going to be a cold one. I also mentioned the chance of a few flurries and that verified as well earlier this morning in the KC area. Lighter snow fell E/SE of KC. Overall I;m very pleased with that forecast. I also forecasted a low of 20° for Sunday morning (tomorrow) last weekend. This is still in play but a patch of clouds may complicate that forecast. I’ll be somewhat frustrated tomorrow AM if my near perfect forecast from last weekend is ruined by a 6 hour clump of clouds streaming in our skies.

Meanwhile up to the north of KC…quite the snowstorm has occurred and it’s still going in the Chicago area and other parts of the Lakes region. from a satellite picture standpoint, this afternoon you can clearly see the snowfield that the storm laid down north of the MO/IA border. The heaviest snow 6″+ was near and north of the I-80 corridor.

sfc

 

Here are some of the more noteworthy snow totals for the I-80 corridor region from the storm. It was an over-acheiver (something that I wonder happens more often this winter with an atmosphere that may hold more moisture than typical because of El Nino). Click on the graphic below to make it more readable.

Capture

A variety of winter weather headlines, as we say, are in effect for the Lakes area.

Capture

Meanwhile back home in the KC area…really we have no weather issues through Tuesday. Temperatures will be moderating to near or above seasonal levels starting Monday afternoon.

Then on Wednesday we should start to see an increase in moisture as the dew points will start coming up with south winds increasing. This actually could happen as early as Tuesday night with low clouds starting to become a weather issue for the area. This will do a couple of things…with the steady winds and the clouds…low temperatures will be noticeably warmer and this will also prevent temperatures during the day from warming up to their full potential as well.

Initially most of the moisture will be from about 5000′ on down to the surface. As we head towards Thanksgiving however the moisture will get even thicker in the atmosphere. This means that any little ripple moving through the Plains could set off patches of rain (mostly light) through Thanksgiving early afternoon. After that though their is concern as another strong cold front moves into that moisture at some point during the day on Thursday.

When that happens, even before hand, some thunderstorms may form near the front itself, then as the front undercuts the warm and moist air near the surface it will allow that moist air to “override” the front. this should spell a large area of rain that will move from the SW to the NE. I continue to have concerns about this, especially for the Plaza lighting ceremony.

From a temperature standpoint, interestingly we may be rather mild (60s) ahead of the front and then see a 20-25°+ drop in the temperatures within 1-3 hours of the frontal passage! Again the timing may be around the lighting ceremony. Oh and the winds will again be howling meaning the wind chills will be tanking behind the front.

As I’ve written for the last several days…and remember IF this pans out…this would’ve been forecast more than 7 days in advance of it happening, timing could change by 3-6+ hours. This could end up being a critical change one way or the other. We do know that it will get MUCH colder again by Friday…the question is exactly when the cold air arrives in KC.

What about wintry precipitation. Well it may in some regards be very similar to what happened last night and earlier this morning when we have rain, which then changes over to a few ice pellets and/or snowflakes as the precip is winding down early Friday. This too may change.

So another active weather week is on tap for the region with more ups and downs in the temperature department and the increasing potential of another soaking rain heading this way sometime Thursday into early Friday morning.

I’ve decided to write up another weather blog tomorrow…this blog though will concern the recent cooperative agreement with all 4 of the news producing stations in KC. It will concern the severe weather colors that we use on the air to keep you safe and alert you when dangerous weather is moving into the area.

Joe

 

 

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