Joe’s Weather Blog: Gobble…gooble…yuck (TUE-11/24)

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Good morning…the Winter Weather Forecast will be released on the blog sometime tomorrow afternoon. The good news is it is written up (mostly) and I promised myself to try to keep it to around 1500 words this year…last year I got out of control with close to 3000(!) words…longer than most term papers when I used to write those. Well I’m close to 1500 words…a little above at this point. So I think overall, considering how much I enjoy writing about the weather…that it’s a bit more clear and concise this year. You’ll be the judge of that 🙂

Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy at times and mild. Windy as well with gusts to 30 MPH possible. Temperatures should again pop to near 60°, if not higher in some areas.

Tonight: Increasing clouds and mild. Windy as well. Lows tonight into the 40s

Wednesday: Cloudy and mild for late November. There may be a few patches of mist/drizzle out there as well. Breezy too with south winds of 20 MPH or so. You’ll notice the dew points coming up and the roads may become damp from that alone.

Thanksgiving: Rain developing, especially during the day and continuing into the evening and overnight. INitially mild with readings near 60° but dropping fast at some point later in the afternoon into the evening. As a matter of fact once that front comes through, we’ll drop 20-25° in a 1-3 hour time span.. Winds will be gusty from the south then switch towards the north and NW behind the front and remain gusty with the colder air spilling through the area. Again the Plaza lighting ceremony may be miserable. IF the front waits a few more hours…it’s possible that it may be mild for the lighting but rain will still be out there during the lighting. So if one thing is avoided (the cold) the other (the rain) may be tougher to avoid.

Discussion:

There are many things to talk about with the weather, here and elsewhere into the weekend. So let’s get to including…

1) Warm temperatures that are back in the area: The average highs for late November are in the 40s now…yesterday we popped to 62° and today we may be in that same area. so far this November is the 21st warmest (through 23 days) and the warmest since 2009. We will stay mild for 2 more days…into Thursday before the colder air moves into the area.

2) Low cloud (gulf moisture surge): You can see it just starting down across the Hill country of Texas and towards the Gulf Of Mexico on the latest satellite pictures. This moisture will zip northwards, propelled by increasing south winds. It will arrive overnight tonight. Look towards central and southern TX and you can see the cloud cover (low clouds) down there.

This moisture should get here in earnest tomorrow morning…in the form of lower clouds…and perhaps a few light showers/sprinkles. I think most of the day will be mainly dry however.

3) The Thanksgiving cold front: This is a big ticket weather item that will be very apparent on the maps tomorrow afternoon moving closer to us. Right now the cold air mass is just starting to develop in western Canada…

sfc

This will be the air mass that expands through the Plains tomorrow and sweeps into KC sometime later in the afternoon on Thursday. As it does so a rather large temperature contrast will develop with 60-65° weather ahead of the front in the region and 30-40° weather (with wind chills in the teens and 20s) within 75 miles of the front’s leading edge across NW MO and far NE KS. That’s why when the front gets here on Thursday…it will drop the temperatures very quickly. It may still be mild in the afternoon…but tank in the evening. At one point Sedalia may be near 65° while Maryville is closer to 35°. Take a look at the morning forecast from the NAM model showing the contrast of temperatures at 3PM Thursday afternoon. Click on the image below to make it larger and more readable. The data today shows the front coming in from north to south between 4-8PM or so. The front may not get to Sedalia until after 9PM Thursday evening…so areas SE of KC enjoy the milder weather longer than areas from KC northwards. Northern MO will be cold from the get go on Thursday.

nam_t2m_mc_20

4) Rain: Yup and it seems quite a bit is on tap for the area. It may take awhile for the rain to develop in the KC area on Thursday. There could be hours of light showers/drizzle in the morning into early in the afternoon so the entire day may not be totally wet…but once the rain gets going it should be mostly light to moderate into Thursday night and early Friday morning. Another soaking type rain is likely and amounts may exceed 1″-1.5″ in spots SE of KC but I think the overall average will be below that when things wind down and be dramatically less the farther north into N MO and NE KS you go.

5) What about this change over that I’m hearing about so much? Will it snow? I’m not too excited about snow in the KC area…the atmosphere really won’t support the formation of any significant areas of snow close to KC with this set-up. While the surface temperatures will be close to 32° the air aloft will not be overly cold. What can happen in these scenarios though is the formation of sleet or ice pellets. This would be briefly possible in the KC area Friday morning. Temperatures should be close to 32-35° Friday morning…something to watch for…in case we have some icy patches develop on the bridges and overpasses. Right now I think N MO would have a somewhat better chance of this happening than here in KC…and even those chances at this point are not overly high.

Here is the latest NAM model showing the evolution over the next few days…for time reference…12Z is 6AM…18Z is Noon…00Z is 7PM and 06 Z is 12AM.

 

The model above will be automatically updated as new model information comes in…so you can always see the latest data right here on the blog.

6) So is there a big storm coming? Well not really, at least through Saturday. The storm in the mid-upper part of the atmosphere really is going to be out towards the western US…great for the mountains of central and N CA again…as they are really starting to build up a nice snow base out there.

The upper level storm now is actually near the west coast of the US.

 

You can see it spinning and turning in the PAC NW. This will eventually get “cut off” from the main jetstream. It will wallow around the western US…spinning like a top…breaking into pieces…reforming at times…and eventually come out into the central/northern Rockies…and by NEXT Tuesday be in the upper Midwest somewhere. Yes it will take about a week to move through 4-5 states from west to east. What this will do for us is keep the mid-upper part of the atmosphere too warm to support snow for quite some time.

What it will also do is keep temperatures mostly below average into early December once the cold air arrives on Thursday…so enjoy the mild weather while you can.

7) What’s this about a Pacific hurricane? I thought hurricane season was done: Well it’s almost done. technically you can get hurricanes/tropical storms to develop any month of the year but in reality they are very rare this late in the year. So here we have Sandra forming in the warm El Nino enhanced waters in the eastern Pacific. This would be the latest known storm in that basin in known weather history. You can see it forming now in the lower right corner of this satellite loop.

 

 

As I type this, winds are around 50 MPH and it’s getting stronger. There is a lot of warm water out there and the upper part of the atmosphere is very conducive for strengthening. It’s been a record breaking year in the eastern Pacific hurricane season. This is the 18th named storm and depending on it’s track, according to the Weather Channel, no intact system has hit the Baja area so late into the season and since 1949 only 3 other named storms even formed this late in the season.

OK that’s it for today….working on this blog alone for almost 2 hours is enough!

Joe

 

 

 

 

 

 

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