Joe’s Weather Blog: Lots of clouds…some rain…maybe a flake (somewhere) (TUE-12/22)

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Good morning…foggy out there to start the day as a clearing line that was in the metro stalled overnight and some moisture returned from the south. In addition there was some low level moisture present so that when temperatures dropped to about 30° the humidity became 100° and we saw some dense fog develop from KC eastwards. Today there is a pretty good recipe for a temperature bust as I’ll explain below.

Forecast:

Today: The fog will only gradually lift…skies will stay cloudy most of the day. The highs will be impacted and I’ll personally only forecast highs near 50° today. The winds will gradually stir up the air later today.

Tonight: Temperatures may be steady in the 40s overnight as south winds increase to 10-20 MPH with an higher gust possible. The winds just above the surface will be cranking away at over 50 MPH…so if we do get more wind overnight, like the other day…we may have more of a breezy night in KC.

Wednesday: Scattered showers are possible with mild morning temperatures, in the 50s, then dropping into the 40s in the afternoon.

Discussion:

As I mentioned yesterday, fast moving disturbances and quick wind shifts will be the highlight of the weather for the next few days…the surface winds have turned towards the SE and will help to stir the air today…and with enough sunshine we could’ve easily popped to the mid 50s but…

 

There is a ton of upper level moisture streaming in as well. That combination of upper and low level moisture is what temperature busts are made of…and I fear today will be one of those types of days.

Another cold front will move through Wednesday towards lunch time…it the moisture in place, additional showers are possible in the area tomorrow…then cooler air will move in Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday is a curious day, really just Thursday morning. There is going to be a weak disturbance moving into the area. It will be very fast moving…but the atmosphere will be cold enough to potentially support at least some light snow showers IF the snow showers moving through KS can hold together long enough. Surface temperatures through 9AM or so Thursday will be around 32° or so potentially in parts of the area, mainly from KC northwards…perhaps staying just north of KC…but it’s something to watch for the KC metro area as well…

In the end this may be more of a NW MO concern than our concern in KC…but all we really need is a 100 mile shift southwards and all of a sudden we have flakes in the skies in the KC area (or closer to KC at least). It’s had my eye since the weekend but I’ve wanted to slow-play the potential because of the the way the winter has played out so far. If whatever it is waits till after 9AM THU to impact the KC area…temperatures at the surface will go above 32° so it really won’t be a concern.

Highs on Thursday may only be in the mid-upper 40s then on Christmas day I’m thinking we may only be closer to about 50°. I was hoping for warmer weather but the warm front may stay south of the area during the day. “Mild” weather should stay with the area for the 1st part of the weekend before things get somewhat chillier on Sunday into early next week.

Another potentially VERY wet storm looks to settle into the area over the weekend and into early next week. There again won’t be much of a cold air component to this…so while it will be chilly it won’t be cold enough (not nearly cold enough) to support any snow near the area with the storm. That means more rain although amounts are still tough to figure out as well as whether or not the storm will linger through Tuesday of next week.

Longer down the road you can see the atmosphere trying to realign itself somewhat after the new year to something more typical for winter in the US…but how that all plays out locally remains to be seen…

Meanwhile…in the near-term…IF you’re traveling or are curious about what kind of weather your loved ones will be seeing over the next few days…take a look at these high temperatures. Notice the eastern 1/4 of the country. Those cities that have circles represent cities that may be close to or break record highs.

Wednesday…

ndfd_record_hi_conus2_2

Thursday…

ndfd_record_hi_conus2_3

Friday…

ndfd_record_hi_conus2_4

Florida may have several days of record highs…and it continues into the weekend down there as well…pretty impressive warmth for sure…and certainly no snow.

I was going to write a bit about how El Nino is doing…hopefully I’ll get around to that this week (WED or THU).

Have a great day…fog seems to be lifting a bit now…

Joe

 

 

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