Joe’s Weather Blog: Brief winter doldrums (WED-12/30)

This is an archived article and the information in the article may be outdated. Please look at the time stamp on the story to see when it was last updated.

Good afternoon…the clouds are still an issue for us and will be so for the next few days I think. Every so often though we should get at least a few hours of clear skies…depending on when those clear skies develop (overnight and it gets colder) (during the day warmer) temperatures will fluctuate.

Forecast:

Tonight: Variable clouds and chilly with lows in the 15-20°

Thursday: In and out sunshine and chilly again with highs near 30°

Friday (New Years): Partly sunny and cool with highs 30-35°

This weekend: Moderating temperatures…35-40° on Saturday and 40-45° on Sunday with melting snow.

Discussion:

Yesterday’s blog concerning the North Pole “warm-up) was one of the more popular non-KC related blogs I ever did. Lots of folks read it (here and around the country) and that made my day! In the end, as I mentioned yesterday we’ll never know for sure because there isn’t a weather station permanently stationed at the North Pole because of the moving ice pack. All we can do is rely on the computer models and what the models think the current temperatures are. This morning the American Model (the GFS) did indeed show temperatures up there near 32°…so that would be warmer than KC for sure, at least this morning. Other models did not initialize the temperatures that “warm”. Again we’ll never know for sure.

Onwards…

We do know what the temperature is in Fairbanks, AK…it’s was a record setting 40° earlier this morning (now down to 31° as of 1PM CST). So Fairbanks was much warmer than KC was…at 1PM KC was 29°…take a look at Alaska.

 

It’s really not that cold anywhere there…at least by Alaskan standards…they’ve warmed up and in a big way compared to “average”. Here is the GFS initialization…from this morning.

gfs_t2m_a_f_alaska_1

That’s a lot of red…the map above shows the anomalies. There are indications that small parts of NW AK were more than 40° above average. As this live web cam below from the Alaska Climate Research Center shows…there is still snow on the ground there…but not a ton.

 

Of course we too have snow on the ground…and it won’t be till later in teh weekend where it’s gone. This snow cover will continue to refrigerate the air for the next few days…at least through Friday…and probably through Saturday. The snow will be melting FRI and SAT…but that evaporation will soup up the bottom part of the atmosphere…and that may create additional low clouds as the night-time temperatures drop off and allow the lower part of the atmosphere to fully saturate.

There is also an issue with winds near the surface (the lack of) and also warmer air moving in from the NW over the colder and moist near surface air. This creates a strong inversion…and that set-up needs to be recognized when forecasting temperatures this weekend. IF we can get near to full sunshine on Sunday…we’ll see temperatures pop well into the 40s.

Aside from that there really isn’t a lot of active weather shaping up through the Plains states into next week. There may be some rain, not a lot it appears from WED on wards next week..we’ll see. We will be losing the cold air over the weekend aloft so it appears to be more of a rain set-up.

That should do it for today. Not sure on the frequency of blogs into the weekend with nothing really to write about. I will get one out either THU or FRI…then at least one over the weekend…

I’ll leave you with this collection of significant weather events for 2015 via the NWS in Pleasant Hill

Have a great day and stay warm.

Joe

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s