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Joe’s Weather Blog: A run towards 60° and 0° (TUE-1/12)

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Good afternoon…another shot of cold air has moved into the region today with temperatures recovering slowly this afternoon in the sunshine. In the books today the high will be 36° at 12AM but by 9AM it was down to 17° and as of this writing we’re back up into the 20s. The blog today will be focusing on the wild fluctuations in the temperatures over the next 7 days…there is a lot of cold air that we’ll be dealing with overall in the pattern…but there is one mild day coming in all that.

Forecast:

Rest of today: Mostly sunny with afternoon temperatures in the 25° range. North winds around 10 MPH so wind chills will be in the teens today.

Tonight: Like this past Sunday night, the winds will be switching back towards the S and SW. This means the cold air is moving away and milder temperatures are coming into the area. Temperatures this evening will drop down into the teens then level off and perhaps rise a bit before daybreak to around 20°

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and milder with highs well into the 40s. SW winds of 10-20 MPH. It may “feel” a bit cool but will be above the average high of around 38°

Discussion:

Interesting but quiet weather coming over the next few days. Cold air moves in and moves out quickly and what’s coming into the region for Thursday has a LOT of potential to be a day where the temperatures go crazy on us (by January standards). It does appear that we’re primed for a 1 day significant warm-up.

Before we get to that though the cold air that’s here is chilly but really not that out of the realm of January cold. Here is the 11 AM surface map…temperatures are in RED. It is much colder across the I-80 corridor from Lincoln, NE through northern IL and points northwards.

 

There are some clouds across parts of central NE..but the visible picture today clearly shows the snow on the ground up there helping to keep them cold. You can see the snow as well in eastern MO north and west of St Louis

 

The cold air in place though will leave quickly tomorrow morning…it’s best shown by looking at the temperatures a few thousand feet above the ground…the following graphics are via NEXLAB.

Today @ 3PM…Wednesday @ 3PM and Thursday @ 3PM

namCGP_925_temp_009

namCGP_925_temp_033

namCGP_925_temp_057

Look carefully at the above graphic…notice that small area of light blue towards Emporia. The model is trying to generate moisture in the form of clouds. Assuming that’s a spurious thing for this time…even the darker green color which represents temperatures at that level of +6-+8°C or around 44-48°F (a few thousand feet above the ground) is probably underdone.

The winds will be blowing pretty good and assuming we have plenty of sunshine we should be primed to warm-up above what the models may think. Assuming the atmosphere is well mixed…I think we can make a real run towards 60° on Thursday and I wouldn’t be shocked if some can go farther than that.

You can also see the cooler air across NE moving this way…and this is the air moving into the area Friday. A storm will be developing right on top of E KS and W MO on Friday. We may get a bit of rain out of it…and also perhaps some light snow later in the day or at night.

Beyond that a stronger push of cold air is coming on Saturday and then the dump of cold air comes SUN>TUE of next week. There are some suggestions of perhaps some light snow with the cold air dump on later Saturday night into early Sunday.

As I mentioned in a tweet last night…my impression about the cold air dump on Sunday is that it’s stronger than what happened last Sunday. My feeling is that the trend in the temperatures will be downwards for Sunday by some forecasters. Perhaps down towards the middle teens or something along those lines. Last Sunday we had sunshine with highs of 19°…this air mass coming into the area is colder than that air mass. Clouds may play a role in how cold the mornings are next week.

Beyond that…there may be a more significant storm in about 10 days…it’s in model fantasy land at this point.

For snow lovers we keep waiting…other places though are getting some good snows…including the Lake Effect areas. One big reason why is that so little of the Great Lakes is ice covered at this point…only about 4%.

 

So when you have this bitterly cold air flowing over the ice free and warmer than average Lake waters…you get heavier lake effect snows…for example up in Northern MI

 

 

The Lake effect is going pretty good through western NY as well.

 

For those curious about the snow closer to home, here is some interesting model data. I can obtain the EURO monthly forecasts which are run 2 x’s per week. These forecasts actually go out about 45 days or so.

I put little credence in this information as a whole but I find it interesting when it goes to the extreme, forecasting either a  little or a lot of snow during the course of the model run. When it does go to the extreme one way or the other, it may be trying to sniff out something that either is really amiss or that’s falling into place for snow lovers.

I can’t show you the physical maps, but there is nothing preventing me from writing about what the data shows. There are various different model runs…so here is what 2 of them show…

For the next 10 days…about 1″

Days 0-20 (through the 30th): EURO Ens has about 4.5″ total while the control run has about 1.5″ total

Days 0-30 (through the 2/9): Ens: 6.5″ totals…control: about 3″ totals

Days 0-45 (through the 2/24): Ens: around 10″ (total)…control 3″ (total).

The model assumes a strict 10:1 ratio…where 10″ snow = 1″ liquid. The ensembles do give us a total of about 2.5″ of liquid precip of which 10″ of that would be snow..again this is through the end of February.

In know we have a lot of weather geeks and blog readers who read other weather blogs…so I thought this would make you either happy or not and tell you something that isn’t readily available.

My concern about the above data is one of the runs of the EURO model called the control run. Those low snow totals are very bothersome to me.

Hey I’m not for a second throwing in the towel on our snowfall forecast of essentially 15-18″ of snow this winter. What concerns my the most is that we’re wasting the cold air masses that we’ve got now. What concerns me is the warm-ups ahead of the storms that are taking rather favorable tracks (somewhat) and still are producing mostly liquid with perhaps some backside snow that has a tough time sticking. Wasting cold and wasting storms (for snow lovers) is not a good combination.

Switching topics…yesterday I posed this question on twitter…

The winner in the poll was easily the Royals and the data actually says the same thing. In reality ALL of KC won. This has been a great run for us…the data though shows the Royals with the higher ratings (by about 10%) in terms of total people watching in the KC metro market. Go Royals and Go Chiefs…the weather up in Foxboro, MA may very well be an issue at least from a wind standpoint. The rain and or wrap around sleet/snow may be ending near game time…or just afterwards. Regardless it looks miserable up there with 15-25 MPH winds at the beginning of the game but fading towards the end of the game.

Have a great Tuesday!

Joe

 

 

 

 

 

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