Joe’s Weather Blog: Tuesday snow update (FRI-1/29)
So in case you didn’t know…yesterday I decided to join Facebook. Yes I know…it’s about 10 years too late…but I just wanted to make sure it was going to catch on. I hear it’s pretty popular with everybody…so I figured what the heck. So do me a favor an come on by and “like” me. You don’t have to super “like” me or super duper “like” me…but a simple “like” will be just fine.
Tonight: Clear and pleasant for late January…lows well into 30s
Saturday: Partly sunny and a pinch cooler but still well above average. Highs well into the 50s
Sunday: Variable clouds. The may be a weird little shower or two out there in the morning, especially up north. Highs will be cooler…probably only in the 60s.
So time is a bit short this afternoon. I’m heading out to Royals Fanfest in less than 1 hour…so somehow I either have to type fast (typo alert [moreso than usual]) or be more concise (that will never happen).
Won’t bother talking much about the weekend…
Onto the situation for early next week.
So you obviously have heard about a potential winter storm. Things are not necessarily any more clear today than they were yesterday BUT I continue to see some indications about what I’ve been preaching this week in terms of where the storm’s track may end up…and that is edging to the south somewhat.
For areas from St Joseph northwards…the odds are starting to tilt in you favor about a pretty significant snow, with lots of blowing snow at that. It’s not a slam dunk…but I continue to favor that scenario right now.
For the KC metro area…it appears to me that we are starting to get more and more into a snowier scenario. Does that mean we will get the core of the storm. Maybe not (but yes it’s still VERY possible, but there should be some decent wrap around snow with the storm…and IF nothing else…that should lay down something worthwhile for snow lovers…plus it would be a wind blown snow.
Let’s remember, and the reason why it’s still tough to go all in (although I have more than my big toe in the water on this as you’re probably well aware of) is that the storm is still NOT a storm. It’s basically several pieces of wind dynamics in the atmosphere that will come together and create a actual upper level storm over the weekend in California.
On the water vapor picture it looks like this…
These pieces will come together over the weekend as I mentioned…and start to form into a more coherent system…
So from there it will continue to organize and come into the Plains Monday night into Tuesday
At the surface there should be a surface storm developing and moving towards the ESE…from KS.
Now the question is how cold will we be here. Some model data is still trying to keep us a little warm. I still feel this may be an error in the data…and since I’m favoring a colder trend to the forecast…the surface storm may trend a bit farther southwards.
What really needs to happen though is that we need to get the entire atmosphere to cool down a bit more…with regards to that…we need to see somewhat colder air above push south…so that the lower part of the atmosphere is conducive for snowflakes to fall…and for that we need to track the area of low pressure at around the 5000′ level…and this is where there are still issues for snow lovers…
Notice that above us…the closed black lines, which indicate where the circulation is above us…is still a bit to the north in terms of latitude…this means we have air that’s above 32° as an issue above the surface…not good for snow lovers…
Now let’s go 12 hours later…and boom!
The graphics above are via WeatherBell.
Now suppose that 5000′ circulation is about 75-100 miles south…then a big snow thump is at hand for KC…
As is we should still get an accumulating snow on the back side of this. I see no reason why I should change my forecast thoughts…
Friday Update: (no changes from yesterday)
Under 3″ snow: 35% chance
Over 3″ snow: 65% chance
To play a little more…over 6″ of snow…35% chance (for 4 days out…that is a VERY significant chance)
To play even further into the “absurd for KC range”…over 12” of snow…15% chance