Joe’s Weather Blog: Winter doldrums settle in (THU-2/4)

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It’s really not that bad of an afternoon out there…temperatures are in the 40-45° range and there is bright sunshine. Overall the forecast is not too terrible but it is mostly dry and there are NO snowstorms coming in the foreseeable future…and this pace that’s through the middle of the month it appears.

Forecast:

Tonight: Clear and chilly with lows in the teens.

Friday: Variable clouds and seasonable with highs around 40° or so

Saturday: Not to bad with highs into the 40s again.

Discussion:

One of the neat things I enjoy showing when I’m on the air or writing a weather blog…is the view from a satellite way up at around 23,000 miles above the earth…taking pictures of clouds and other things. I bring this up because today’s shot is a beauty for the central part of the country…it’s just a black and while picture hut it shows the snow cover that’s out there so well..of course none of it is really close to Kansas City.

Most of what you see above (the whiter colors) is snow on the ground. If you look carefully into NE you can make out some of the rivers…in particular the Platte River. Look into western NE and you can make out Lake McConaughy. It’s the thicker area of darkness embedded in the snowcover.

Of course…that snow cover does impact the temperatures up there…take a look at the national lows this morning…

 

It certainly could’ve been colder…and it should get colder next week. More on that in a few minutes…

Meanwhile in KC…we of course don’t have snow on the ground…and aside from some snow showers, it may be quite some time before we see snow on the ground in a wide spread fashion around here…this is the view today from space showing the KC metro area…look closely and towards the center of the image below and you can see the pavement look from space

In reality in the world of weather the only noteworthy item to talk about will be the up and down temperatures through next week. Beyond that it appears milder weather will again move into the Plains states…so next week is an up and down one…followed by a somewhat milder 3rd week of February.

Let’s use the EURO model showing the apprx. 5000′ temperatures anomalies which will help us track the colder then warmer air masses

Here is the forecast for Monday morning…notice the blue/greens from the upper Miwest through the Plains…cold air is funneling southwards. Roughly 10-20° F below average at that level.

ecm_t850_anom_noram_5

Courtesy WeatherBell

Now Tuesday morning…

ecm_t850_anom_noram_6

It’s even colder…notice all the greens/whites…that’s 15-30° below average at that level…brrrrr!

 

Now for next Friday morning…good bye cold air mass…notice some reloading in central and southern Canada

ecm_t850_anom_noram_9

The next map is for next Saturday morning the 13th…we’re still in the milder air at that level at least…the cold shot that was rebuilding in Canada is sliding more towards the NE part of the country

 

ecm_t850_anom_noram_10

Now next Sunday…the 14th…the gist being the the heart of the cold air is in SE Canada and the NE US…that’s a bad look for snow lovers in the KC area.

ecm_t850_anom_noram_11

The GFS forecast for total snow accumulations in the latest run was woeful, needless to say…ummm this is through 2/20…and it very well may be right unless something significantly changes at least pertaining to the KC area.

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_conus2_65

GFS total snow accumulations through 2/20 via WeatherBell

I don’t really know what to say for you snow “wanters”/lovers out there. It’s miserable. I’ve said a few times that I wouldn’t be concerned about the lack of snow until the middle of February…well we’re not there yet BUT I don’t like where we are…I don’t like where we’re going for snow and I don’t like the temperatures warming back up again.

We’ve had 5.3” of snow so far this snow season…let’s just say we stay in the general area through 2/15…then on the 15th this would be 16th least snowiest period (10/1-2/15) in KC weather history going back to the 1880s.

Capture

 

So what happened in the top 15 of those years…did the snow gods throw a hail mary pass…did we hit a grand slam in the bottom of the 9th…a 3 point basket as the clock hit :00 to win in the end…

Aside from 2012-13…where we went from 3.1″ to 31.8″ after 2/15…there is nothing really encouraging to pass along…IF I averaged out all those years above I come up with a grand total of 11.2″ of total snow…indicating we could double the snow accumulations we’ve had so far this snow season in the next 2 months or so.

We’ll see.

Enjoy the brown ground!

Joe

 

 

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