Joe’s Weather Blog: About to put a fork in it…(SUN-2/28)

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Good afternoon…another day with highs well into the 60s in the KC area as we’re running about 20° above average for today’s date, and while we tied a record high yesterday of 73° (I didn’t think we would if you remember) today the record is 78° and it is safe. Meanwhile the winds have switched directions towards the NW and are cranking and gusting to about 30 MPH…sadly though…this cold front has wind and not much else it appears…which is strange for a FEB cold front really…where’s the cold air?

Forecast:

Tonight: Clear and colder with lows in the 30s

Monday: Mostly sunny and milder with highs well into the 60s again to near 70°

Tuesday: Turning colder with highs near 40°

Discussion:

My goodness…even February cold fronts are weak these days. Not enough that snow lovers are crying in their shovels about a lac of snow for the last couple of years in KC…but now even when a cold front comes through, it really doesn’t register much. Here is the 1PM surface map…the front is through, as denoted by the wind shift. Yes tonight will be chillier but we’re still be in the 30s by daybreak Monday.

The temperatures are in RED…

Whatever “cold” air (not) comes in overnight leaves us on Monday and once again we soar to between 65-70° as SW winds kick back in, ahead of a stronger March 1st (TUE) cold front.

One could see how, during the spring season, that we could’ve had a broken line of storms moving through with this type of front, although it’s a bit early in the day and the “convergence” wouldn’t have been that great along the frontal zone.

Anyway…yes it’s a front…and no there’s not a lot of cool air with it…which is strange for FEB.

A stronger front moves in on TUE…so we’ll be back closer to 40-45° behind that front. There maybe some rain with it…but I’m not expecting much more than scattered showers with many areas staying dry I think.

For the month overall, we’re running about 5° above average. That after a crazy mild DEC and a seasonable JAN. Overall though well above average for meteorological winter (DEC-FEB).

So how does this “winter” stack up…well through yesterday take a look at the region as a whole…

Capture

Winter 2015-16 rankings…the number 3 for example means the 4th warmest

 

Here in KC…it’s the 3rd warmest in downtown KC…the 6th warmest @KCI (since the early 70s) and the 14th warmest when you combine both station reports together (official for KC-called “threaded” data)

Notice Chicago is the 4th warmest…St Louis is the 7th warmest and Springfield is the 5th warmest.

It’s been even warmer compared to average in the NE part of the country…there are a lot of 1-5’s on that map…my goodness.

Capture

 

With all that said…the pattern overall looks pretty mild to me for the the next couple of weeks. Their will be a few shots of chilly air but overall I’m not excited about seeing much more than that and while their could still be some flakes of snow out there this week…there is nothing too impressive on tap for the next 2 weeks I feel. Also we’re going to be losing most of the cold air through mid month…which means that the only way we can get an accumulating snow here is IF the storm takes a perfect track and that’s going to be tough to do I think…

So yes…the nails are firmly being hammered into the snow coffin of 2015-16 in KC

Sad really…

Joe

 

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1 Comment

  • Patrick Trudel (@sedsinkc)

    Joe, let’s assume for this post that our current 5.3″ snowfall for the season ends up being the final tally (although I acknowledge there’s still time for that to change). This would be the 3rd lowest in KC history, and would mean we’ve had two of the top three least snowiest winters on record in the past 5 winters. However, even with that fact, our average annual snowfall over the past 7 winters here is 23.2 inches, which is over 4 inches above the 1981-2010 30 year average. You could look at this at least a couple of ways. Perhaps our winters are getting snowier on average, or we still have some low snowfall winters coming in the years ahead to get KC back closer to its 30 year average. It’s one of the aspects of KC’s winters that is so fascinating, how one winter we get 2-3 feet of snow total, while another we only get a few inches. Snow lovers, next winter is only about 9 months away. There’s always hope.