Joe’s Weather Blog: Opening Day forecast thoughts (MON-3/28)
Good morning…frosty as expected for many areas but a fast recovery is in the works today as temperatures will pop nicely and the sun will be shining. Yesterday we ended up with a record setting 1″ of moisture at KCI…this was a new daily record for precipitation for 3/27. Also there was .3″ of snow…the most snow on Easter Sunday since 1921, almost 100 years ago!
Today: Sunny and mild with highs in the mid 60s. SE winds increasing to 10-20 MPH
Tonight: Fair skies and milder with lows in the 40s
Tuesday: Mixed clouds and sunshine and mild with highs near 70°
There are two things I want to touch on in today’s blog…1) the situation for Wednesday and especially Wednesday evening/night as another cold front/dry line will be nudging closer to KC with moisture in place…and 2) the situation for next weekend and particularly Opening Night in KC.
We’ll start on #2. I’ve been tweeting and sending out thoughts about this day (Sunday the 3rd) for about a week now…my concerns about a dump of cold weather into the Plains messing up the Royals. My thoughts were that the game would be dry, but I wasn’t sure IF the cold air was going to come at us or give us a glancing blow, or even be more directed through the Lakes region into the NE part of the country. For the last couple of days the models (especially the EURO) has been more along the option 3 angle. The GFS has been closer to option 1 and 2. In the last 12-24 hours it appears that the better chances of option 3 are on the table now…what does that potentially mean for KC?
How about daytime highs on Sunday into the 70s IF not warmer!
That would put the 1st pitch weather closer to 65° with temps in the 58° range by the end of the game!
Now that is something you and I can be excited about.
Let’s talk about the whys. I’ll be using the EURO model to show why I was concerned and also why I’m encouraged. we’re not totally out of the woods of some chilly weather BUT I’m really liking the subtleties of what I’m seeing.
With the April sun angle and the dry air + enough sunshine…we could easily be in the 70s for tailgating!
Now we need this to be right. IF the model is not handling that Pacific ridge correctly…and the flow aloft is more from the NORTH and less from the WEST-NORTH-WEST then we could see some cooler temperatures…but overall my confidence today is increasing that the milder option is going to be very much in play for Opening night!
Look at how far the GFS model has come in the last 5 days or so…I sent this out on twitter (@fox4wx) last night @ 12AM or so…
Now that’s a long ways!
Let’s come farther down in the atmosphere and check out the temperatures closer to 5000′ up. we get a better idea on the air mass situation by doing this…
OK let’s backtrack a bit and update you on Wednesday. Please refer back to yesterday’s blog for additional details.
I’m wondering about a few things…1) the low clouds that will reduce instability. Assuming they are in abundance and are thick enough…heating (it’ll still be warm (near 70°) may be a bit limited in eastern KS and western MO. While the dew points may be higher than what happened late last week (dew points closer to 55°) the extensive cloud cover could reduce the instability.
Meanwhile farther west, there should be more instability and this area will be closer to the dry line. Storms should fire there and also towards SC KS. Those storms will then move ENE and NEwards. This is where the severe weather chances “may” be higher…towards the west and SW of KC. Typically what happens when storms fire out there is that they short of shoot all there bullets of severe weather closer to where they form (hail/wind/tornadoes) and as they move closer to us they evolve more into a line of storms with some straight line winds and smaller hail.
The SPC is watching a wide region for the potential of severe storms…including our area.
With all that said though…the winds above us will be rather strong…45-60 MPH…so assuming some storms make it to us…the potential of them tapping into that wind field and bringing some of those stronger winds down to the ground is certainly there for the KC area. That may be the biggest concern on Wednesday evening in my opinion. In other words our basic strong to borderline severe storm routine for KC.
Should the cloud cover be less extensive and the heating more prevalent…then we may have something more to deal with (stronger storms locally). Again the extensiveness and the thickness of the low clouds during the day will sort of determine where we head in terms of the worst weather.
An update to the situation for both Wednesday and over the weekend will be in tomorrow’s blog. Enjoy a great Monday!