Joe’s Weather Blog: Who’s tired of this wind? (hands up) (THU-4/7)

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Good morning…the birds are singing and the sun is shining…all a nice combination. Chilly as well with temperatures in the upper 30s in parts of the area. Thankfully the wind is under 10 MPH as of this writing…unfortuantely that won’t last for too long. Today we should see a decent warm-up.

Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and seasonable with highs 60-65°

Tonight: A bit cooler with lows in the mid 30s…some areas will be closer to 30°

Friday: Sunny and a bit cool for April with highs closer to 60°

Discussion:

Yes this is going to be another day with wind…it sure seems like we’re have a lot of wind since the start of March or so. I just looked at the average winds since March 1st and at least 1/2 the days have had average winds 10 MPH+. When you look at the strongest wind gusts per day…you can really see how the days of 30 MPH winds have been rather prevalent!

Capture

March 2016 data

Capture1

April 2016 data

It’s not uncommon to have bigger winds in March and April. This is the time of the year when the seasons are transitioning and we’re getting a lot of air movement. very simply air and wind flows from high pressure to lower pressure

In essence we can thank the sun for this. As the sun heats up the ground and the atmosphere differently because of terrain effects (mountains) and latitude (equator vs the poles) the air heats up differently. warm air rises and cooler air replaces the rising warm air. This happens on the ground and above and the result is different wind regimes all over the planet. lately it seems though we’ve had a lot of this type of wind…

than anything else…just kidding…sort of!

Today will be no exception. As of this writing the winds are under 10 MPH…but just above the surface the winds are going to be blowing at 30-35 MPH this afternoon. Let’s go up to about 3000 feet or so…and you can see the stronger winds at that level pretty much right on top of the area.

Capture

courtesy pivotalweather.com

As the sun heats the air…the air gets stirred up and starts “mixing”. This will occur through the afternoon. This mixing then taps into the stronger winds above us…and the winds increase here on the ground. Since the air above us is dry as well…the dew points at the surface also stay low.

Winds + dry air + still some dormant or dead vegetation out there leads to this…

We’re getting used to that these days!

Over the next 10 days or so…the rain chances aren’t that many. There will be a chance on Sunday into Sunday night with a cold front. Don’t be surprised if you see forecasts for highs on Sunday trend closer to 80°. The air above us would support it but we’ll see how much cloud cover we have to deal with. A cold front will be sliding our way early in the evening and may be able to tap into some of that warmth + dew points that should be easily in the 50s. The entire area though may not get the rain…let’s see IF we can finally get something on the south side of the area from KC southwards for a change. IF we don’t get much or miss out on this fronts chances…it looks pretty dry again afterwards. as a matter of fact for what it’s worth our EURO model gives us about 1.1″ of rainfall over the next 15 days…which is low for April. The GFS through 10 days is around 6/10″ or so with all of that coming on Sunday.

Through 16 days…the early AM run of the GFS looked like this…about 3/4-1.5″ below average in the KC area and NEwards,

gfs_tprecip_kc_65

via Weatherbell

Nothing to panic about yet but something to pay more attention too as we go through the month of April.

Finally last night I participated in a discussion about a weather blog I did on 3/7 asking IF there was a better way of handling severe thunderstorm warnings. The conversation went for about 90 minutes or so…here is the link if you’re interested. My thanks to the Carolina Weather Group for having me on their show!

Joe

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