Severe storms with torrential rain pummeling the metro, tap here for radar

Joe’s Weather Blog: Enjoy the dry times because… (FRI-5/20)

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Good morning…a gray start to our TGIF in the KC area after the expected showers late yesterday afternoon/evening and early this morning. Temperatures again today will be below average for the last third of the month as our monthly trends are now more than 3° below average. While starting to dry out this afternoon rain chances will never be far from the area…and even over the weekend I can see some fleeting chances in the viewing area as well.

Forecast:

Today: What morning showers are still around will fade away towards lunch then variable clouds and cool. Highs today 65-70° or so. SE winds 5-15 MPH

Tonight: Partly cloudy and cool with lows near 50°

Saturday: More sunshine and milder with highs near 75°. Winds SE 8-15 MPH

Sunday: Partly cloudy and more “May” like with highs near 80°. A bit more humid too!. SE winds 15-25 MPH

Discussion:

We’re starting the day with lots of clouds and a few leftover showers in the region. Since the clouds are the issue for the time being…take a look at the latest satellite picture…hopefully we’ll see more breaks in said clouds during the afternoon.

These clouds should break up a bit as the day goes along…but it may take bit of time for that to happen.

Why the overnight showers…see the dip in the flow pattern over the KC region…that is the remnant of the “momma” storm that we’ve written about for over a week. It finally kicked out…in response to the next upper level storm that is moving through the western USA this morning.

That western US dip or “trough” will weaken and lift up towards central Canada by early next week. This may bring some MUCH needed rain to the raging forest fires up towards Alberta, Canada. As it does so…other waves will be digging into the western US through early next week. These will be the waves to monitor for the potential of additional storms next week and especially for the potential of some significant Plains rainfall (perhaps in excess of 4-6″) in areas…as well as severe weather risks.

Here is a look at the EURO model forecast for next Monday evening Notice in the map above the dip/upper level storm out west…that goes into Canada…notice as well the newer pieces of energy in the western part of the US.

ecm_z500_anom_conus_5

Map via WeatherBell-7PM Monday

So that is the set-up for TUE>THU…the day I’m curious about the severe weather risk is more towards THU and perhaps FRI of next week.

Meanwhile on Monday the same western US dip (now) that moves up towards Canada over the weekend…will force a cold front to move into the Plains states Monday. This will allow return flow and higher dew points to start moving into the Plains over the weekend

Take a look at the dew points this morning…mostly 50-55° dews…

rtma_dew2m_mc

Friday morning dew points

Now take a look at the “forecast” dew points for Monday morning…

nam_dew2m_mc_27

NAM model dew points for Monday 7AM…notice all the 60-65°+ dew points

Dew points are important (especially during the spring/summer) because it gives us an idea of the amount of surface moisture around. The higher the dew points the muggier the feel during this time of the year. With all the rain we’ve had…and what’s coming…expect some extremely muggy days in June (75-80° oppressive dew points)

High dew points alone though won’t give us rain…we need a trigger in the atmosphere to help the cause and to get things in motion. In the case of Monday…that trigger will be a cold front draped out to the west of the KC area in the morning that will be easing eastwards during the day. I’m not sure it’s going to make it through the KC area…or how much of the “cool” air will make it into the area (if any for KC) behind the front itself. Rain should be prevalent along and ahead of the front and that will make it into the area. So sort of a weird deal with the front falling apart nearby and yet us still fighting some rain.

Rain will develop Sunday evening out west…and creep this way into Monday. Rain chances in KC appear highest through the early afternoon on Monday.

Beyond that though…we’ll be taking things more on a day by day basis. As these various waves moves through the Plains and the corresponding thunderstorm regions develop and fade they all will tend to alter the atmosphere on a daily basis. What happens one day may determine what happens the next. To me at least the higher rain chances may be on Monday-Tuesday and Thursday. The drier day may be on Wednesday. Again the model data (now through the weekend) won’t really be able to handle individual set-ups when things get all complicated next week. With that said there are strong indications of lots of avail moisture through the atmosphere for these set-ups and that means the higher risk of flooding rainfall.

As far as severe weather goes…while we may not be in the right spot through Wednesday…we may be closer to the right spot on Thursday. Also the Plains will have higher risks of severe storms MON>WED that we may have here in KC proper.

So a lot is going to happen next week. My suggestion IF you have a faulty sump pump…you may want to get it fixed or replaced because of the locally heavy rain risks…some areas locally may see over 5″ of rain through the end of next week if things play out.

Joe

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