Joe’s Forecast: Decent weekend…muddled work week (SAT-5/21)
Good afternoon…lot’s of bright sunshine early on this Saturday. Temperatures which bottomed out in the upper 40s…average is mid 50s…are recovering nicely this afternoon and we’ll finish well into the 70s before the end of the day. Clouds may increase a bit as well and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a few showers/sprinkles somewhere out there before the day is done…especially farther west of KC proper. Our average monthly temperature is 3.3° below average.
Tonight: Partly cloudy and not as cool with lows in the 50s
Sunday: Partly cloudy, breezy and warmer with highs around 80°. You may start to notice the dew points coming up as well. Winds will be increasing too from the south at 15-25 mph or so.
Monday: AM rain chances increase through early afternoon then we should be drying out later in the day. Highs are tough because of the rain/clouds…let’s shoot for around 75°.
This morning on FOX 4 Saturday morning (we moved to 6AM-8AM) I talked about a wetter weather week heading our way for next week. Today’s data thus far is not really changing that thinking. With that said, relying on the model data to handle these types of situations isn’t the greatest idea. The big reason is that the weather next week will be characterized by various areas of thunderstorms in the Plains…these complexes will alter and change the atmosphere around them too. Clouds, pockets of cooler surface air, various areas of sinking air in their wake and a bunch of other things will create modelling issues that will become more and more apparent over the next few days. For those reasons it may be better to try and track the more substantial waves aloft…but even that isn’t nearly perfect.
The one change in the data that I expected was the cold front that would be west of the KC area tomorrow into Monday…will not make it in the KC region. In a sense that could eliminate a trigger for storms…but just one trigger let’s look for other ones as the week moves along.
Even later this Saturday afternoon holds an issue. There are some weak mid-level areas of lift coming into the region today. Right now there is nothing to suggest rain may make it this far east in the Plains but there may be some sprinkles early this afternoon up in N MO…
For the sake of argument I will keep the local NWS radar in the blog today.
Some of our short term model data shows some showers developing eastwards as the afternoon moves along. The HRRR has been the most aggressive with this..perhaps too aggressive. It even has some thunderstorms developing from Salina towards Emporia after 2PM or so which track towards the ESE…it’s something to watch especially from Lawrence westwards and towards Ottawa and Garnett. The satellite loop below shows some more vertical clouds developing from near Manhattan ans southwards
So let’s pay attention to the radar in case something tries to hold together as it moves eastwards.
Tomorrow should be mostly dry again I think. Dew points will be increasing as the day moves along…probably to near 60° by the end of the day or into Sunday night.
By Monday the cold front will be well west of KC and petering out as it moves eastwards.
SW flow aloft will allow waves to come out of the southern Rockies and move into the Plains allowing areas of thunderstorms to develop in parts of the Plains. On Monday the combination of warmer and more moist air moving through the Plains should allow showers/storms to develop in eastern KS and drift our way as the morning moves along. This may be more of a widespread rain although not all will get the moisture on Monday. Certainly clouds will be common as well as rain in many areas. As far as rain amounts go…my feeling is that on average amounts should be in the 1/4″-1/2″ range with Monday’s activity
Various boundaries may be left behind and serve as focus areas for additional storms on Tuesday in the region too. How widespread that is isn’t known at this point although I think it may not be as common as Monday’s rain chances. The activity on Tuesday may be a bit more convective.
As far as the severe weather risks go…again nothing really to hang your hat on locally. The wind profiles of the atmosphere aren’t the greatest through the middle of the week for severe storms around KC proper. There will be quite a bit of instability out there though so should there be severe weather odds are that wind/hail would be the main threats from the storms that form. I’m not expecting severe weather on Monday. After that though the chances will be there but aren’t overwhelming at this point.
The better and more widespread severe weather risks may develop later in the week and into next Saturday locally. Again a long ways away for sure.
OK that’s enough for today…enjoy the drier time while you can because the clock is ticking on the dry days around KC.