Joe’s Weather Blog: Yes to the rain…but only sometimes (MON-5/23)
Good morning…not too bad out there to start the day. Radar is showing some rain developing out to the west + a disturbance near the Emporia area creeping NEwards…all the while the atmosphere is increasingly getting more moisture fed into it..those are the knowns…the unknowns though are the keys to the forecast and as I mentioned in past blogs…the models will not be handling these events well overall…nor will they be able to resolve the various features that will be in play. That means that we’ll have lower confidence in the rain timing and location for most of the week. Really all that we can do is try to predict a bunch of stuff that doesn’t even exist…nor will it for hours to come…then try and figure out where the future activity will move and how that may alter the atmosphere around us for the future days…sort of like herding cats and kittens…
Today: The risk of showers will be increasing later this morning (I think). There may be some rumbles as well…but this is still tentative because radar isn’t the greatest as of this writing. Our short-term models do show rain closer to the KC area later this morning into the afternoon. Where there is rain, temperatures will drop into the 60s…where there is no rain…temperatures will be in the 75-80° range. The better rain chances will be from KC westwards and also up towards nE KS and NW MO I think. Radar will be in the discussion part of the blog.
Tonight: The issue with the chances of rain really are what are the triggers too get the atmosphere in motion to produce storms. Overnight and Tuesday AM there will be a rather decent low level jet stream that should provide lift. The issue is will there be a boundary below that jet stream (around 5,000′ up) to have the jet stream run over. That is why what happens today is important to tonight’s chances. Let’s call for scattered storms after 3AM…with lows in the 60s
Tuesday: There may not be a lot happening here. The rain chances may be more confined towards the AM with the low level jet stream still going above us but it will quickly fade after sunrise so the rain chances are rather tenuous in my opinion. Highs Tuesday could easily be in the 80s depending on any lingering rain chances.
What a mess…and as I mentioned at the top…sort of like herding cats as far as the forecast goes. What happens one day…influences the next day and so on and so on.
It is what it is…and we’ll just be nowcasting quite a bit this week. As I’ve mentioned on the air…this is going to be a very changeable week in terms of the forecast. My feelings though are that WED>THU may offer the better chances of dry weather…again though depending on the evolution of what happens in other parts of the Plains states…our weather will be dictated by other disturbances that may or may not form. If I’m sounding wishy-washy…I apologize. Lots of moving parts to our weather for the next 4-5 days.
One thing though that I’m not too excited about for the next few days…that is the chance of any widespread severe weather locally. Cold a random storm produce some hail or gusty severe-level winds…sure…but I think that that chance will be rather low for KC proper for awhile.
One of the many issues we have is just where are the triggers for the rains to form. Radar this morning actually shows something interesting…
1st let’s start with the local Pleasant Hill radar…
Now let’s move out to the west of KC towards Topeka. IF you look at the blog this morning…look towards the SW of Emporia and notice a broad “spin” down there. That is a disturbance that is creeping northwards it appears. That may well serve as a “trigger” as we warm up this morning into the 70s.
The issue is how long does that little disturbance live on for…because it may be weakening as I type this blog. Our short-range model data has been VERY persistent in creating rain on the KS side and drifting it this way later this AM and early this afternoon. Here is the HRRR model (via IA State) showing the evolution of the day. This model will auto update and it’s important to notice what the model shows 1 hour out…and compare that too what you see on the radar. That is the rub to the forecast. REALITY vs MODELOLOGY.
The models suggest that the wave towards Emporia will help provide enough lift as the later morning moves along to create more rain in eastern KS that would then move toward the NNE. Should this play out…some would get the rain…others won’t get a drop…which is somewhat my forecast thinking. Another one of our short term models give us little to nothing today.
The bottom line is IF the rains out west don’t form this morning…we’ll be mainly dry today…again just watch the radar and don’t cancel outdoor plans at this point.
Again those who get the rain will see temperatures retreat from the 70s to the 60s while others who don’t get the rain will see temperatures closer to 80°.
At this point it looks like things should dry out later this afternoon into the evening hours…so for those who get the rain and see the temperatures drop…the temperatures will start rebounding again this afternoon. Again a real forecast conundrum because the weather will vary significantly from city to city in the viewing area today.
Again as far as WED>THU…I’m just not sure what the triggers will be to get additional storms going aside from maybe the heat and humidity that will be in place…maybe some scattered stuff which could pop just about anywhere really. More summer-ish air too with dew points well into the 60s and temperatures well into the 80s. A/C weather I think.
I still think the better storm chances will come when a stronger wave comes out later in the week. Depending on the timing of that wave…the risk of severe storms will go up…but should that wave be ill-timed for the overnight hours…perhaps we may skate through the week will very little severe weather locally. IF there is more widespread risks of stronger storms…this may occur on Friday.
Again soooo many moving parts involved. What happens in other parts of the Plains states will dictate our weather in the KC area.
Like I said…we’re trying to herd cats this week.