Joe’s Weather Blog: The perils of flooding (FRI-6/3)

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Good afternoon…our weather is mostly quiet in the KC area today…although there are some showers off towards the east and southeast of the KC metro…so an off and on somewhat wet afternoon out towards central MO and down towards the Lakes region. I talked explicitly about this yesterday. We’re NOT totally out of the woods regarding rain chances early Saturday and there is probably at least another chance on Monday afternoon.

Forecast:

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a chance of some showers early Saturday morning. The rain chance overnight is about 30% I think. Temperatures will drop into the 60s by daybreak.

Saturday: After the fleeting rain chances fade towards 8AM…overall a nice afternoon is shaping up for the area. Temperatures will be seasonable and dew points will again be reasonable (sort of like Thursday’s weather)

Sunday: Pleasant with morning lows 55-60° and afternoon highs around 80° or so.

Discussion:

A couple of cold fronts will be working through the area through Tuesday and the net effect for us will be periodic shots of lower dew point type air…this will help to give us pleasant June afternoons and comfortable mornings in the area through early next week. The more significant heat should hold off till later in the week.

Here is the 1PM surface map showing a cold front west of the KC area…

sfc

1PM Friday surface map

That front will be coming into area overnight tonight into daybreak Saturday morning. The timing is not great but I wouldn’t be shocked to at least see some scattered showers/storms develop as the front comes through…probably moving through the KC area between 2-7AM or so…from there we’re looking better for the rest of the weekend.

Another front is due in later Monday. We should be warmer on Monday BUT the wind fields at the surface may not be that conducive for thunderstorms. There is also a question about how much instability we can have as well on Monday. So in my opinion…a 20% chance is a good opening salvo.

Comfortable air will come back into the area on Tuesday into Wednesday AM before we heat up again WED PM into THU.

So that takes care of a “mainly” dry next 5-6 days or so.

Onwards.

There has been some sad news regarding flooding. Texas in particular has seen some devastating flooding lately. Yesterday 5  soldiers from Ft Hood were killed…4 are missing and 3 survived in a flood situation.

Details are still coming out about what happened…and what the soldiers were doing/training when flood waters overtook the truck they were in.

Numerous rivers and creeks are out of their banks down there. Rainfall tallies in the Houston region are through the roof over the past 45 days…also regionally as well.

nws_precip_houston_45

Houston rainfall (last 45 days)

 

nws_precip_tx_45

Regional rainfall (last 45 days)

Through yesterday Houston, TX is almost 18″ above average for the year…and close to 37″ already! Take a look at the precipitation rankings for the year so far down in TX…the numbers relate to their wettest years ever…so for example a 1 means that it’s the wettest in their weather history.

Capture

Precipitation rankings for the year so far…the # 1’s represent the wettest year in the cities weather history.

San Angelo…Tyler…and Del Rio are also experiencing their wettest years on record (so far).

Dozens of counties down there have declared states of emergency.

As we all know…tornadoes get the fair share in terms of what people think causes the most deaths when it comes to weather. What’s interesting is when you look at the last 30 year average…tornado deaths in the USA are actually 3rd. Heat and flooding are #1 and #2.

Capture

Weather related fatalities in the last almost 40 years…

Sadly, and I’m not referring to yesterday’s flood fatalities because those details are not in yet…but soooo many of these deaths can be avoided simply by turning around. I saw this video on my twitter feed yesterday and it says it all really.

Watch this video…

So preventable…

The good news is that both survived…but this could’ve not ended well at all for them.

Obviously we’ve had our fair share (and then some) in KC of rain over the past 4-8 weeks or so…

Our drier weather is welcome…although with the dryness and the lower dew points over the next few days…the grass may need a little drink of water at some point.

Have a great weekend and the next blog update will be Saturday by 2PM or so…

Again I’ll be off from Sunday>the 14th so blogs will be VERY infrequent in that span. I may do a couple here or there just to keep my weather “feet” wet.

Joe

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