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Joe’s Weather Blog: A scorcher but what about some rain (THU-8/4)

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Good morning and thanks for spending a few minutes reading the Fox 4 Weather Blog. Last night as I was reading some other articles…I became curious about how you access and read this blog…so I wanted to take a 1 question simple poll…so if you can help a guy out…I’d appreciate it! You can also leave your response in the FB comment section as well.

I’m just curious actually…because I sometimes put a lot of information/graphics/animations on this blog in an effort to show you certain things…

Onwards…

Forecast:

Today: Hot and humid with highs well into the 90s and heat index values 105°+.

Tonight: Dry this evening and muggy. Overnight there may be some showers/storms straying into the area from NW MO and NE KS. Let’s see how well they hold together. Rain chances would increase towards or after 10PM. I’m still not sure on the coverage of this activity however.

Friday: It will be “less hot”. There are other questions though. Do we have rain in the area in the morning…I think we will..again the coverage is a question. Highs should be in the 80s. We may still be rather muggy though as the dew points won’t be dropping much tomorrow…so it will still be rather steamy out there.

Discussion:

I’m not sure how I’m feeling about the summer so far…it started hot and very dry in June…then we flipped to wet but steamy for a few weeks in July…now we’re sort of drying out again in many areas…although some (especially on the MO side) got more than their fair share of rain the other day. Just sort of chaotic overall. Today the main focus is on the heat and the humidity.

We do have a front on the map this morning and it will be the main player in the forecast through the weekend. How far south it gets and then when it tries to retreat northwards again will go a long ways in determining how much rain we have locally. There is all sorts of potential for 1-4″ rains in the area…including KC proper but it’s not as clear cut as I’d like to see…and once again large model solution differences is reducing the confidence in any one outcome.

sfc

8AM surface map…watching that cold front in NE

Ahead of the front the winds have finally switched towards the south…this has been a longgggg process and with that wind shift in place…scorching temperatures will move in as the day moves along.

You can see both features on the next animation via windyty.com

With the south winds blowing in some hotter weather…yesterday temperatures were near 100° across SE KS/S KS and OK..a heat advisory is in effect for the area. Again this is a one day deal.

The front comes into the area overnight and passes through tomorrow through lunch.. We should get storms with it but we will some somewhat capped and it’s coming through at a bad time…at night the instability wanes with the setting sun. I have a tough time believing though that it won’t be able to generate at least some storms as it moves into and through the area slowly. The convergence though isn’t the greatest when the front gets here. A surface low is way down in western OK…even into the TX panhandle…I’d really like to see that surface low in KS…closer to us to get more excited.

With that said…model data overnight shows a VERY soupy and juicy atmosphere…initially across N MO and then closer to KC tomorrow…so whatever forms will have a LOT of moisture to work with in the atmosphere…hence the potential for heavy rains. Perhaps the better chances of that occurring is in northern MO tonight and tomorrow early AM. We have seen several occurrences this summer of the juicy air really being efficient in generating some big rain totals in the region.

The front will slowly work southwards tomorrow…and we may see some large temperature swings from the north to the south. Rain cooled air in N MO may keep their readings closer to 70-75° while areas south of KC may be 90°+. That would put the KC area in between which creates a separate forecasting headache on it’s own. I’m playing it middle of the road this morning with highs 80-85°. Potentially 85-90° on the south side.

Then on Saturday and Sunday the positioning of the front will play a key in the rain chances as the front will be “over-ridden” by a developing low level night-time jet stream. This is a common occurrence in the Plains states and what happens is that the surface front sets up…then winds up around 4-6,000 feet override (blow over) the surface front. This creates lift and with lots of moisture in the atmosphere…this leads to storms developing overnight than can linger into the 1st part of the day. IF the front set’s up too far south…then the storms would stay farther south of KC…the storm motions would would more west to east so we want the front to essentially set up south of the immediate metro…then hang out in central KS…then the overriding jet stream would allow storms to form and move along the I-70 corridor giving us some beneficial rains.

I do think we’ll have at least some rain in the area Friday morning as the front works through…and again it will “cool” down on Friday. Beyond that though there are questions. The GFS model is the most bullish with this potential…but it’s somewhat on it’s own in terms of rainfall generation.

That’s it for now…I’ll give you an update tonight at 5/6/9/10.

Our feature photo of the day was sent in this morning. There have been some isolated storms out there this morning…the picture is from Adrienne Epperson (@AdrienneEnKC)

Joe

 

 

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2 comments

  • Amae

    Yes, very cool wind map Joe. Thank you !
    I have another one, so now I have 2 😄. http://hint.fm/wind/
    I could not participate in your poll, as I am on a tablet (iPad). Does that count as a computer ?
    It is so hot today. I am ready for the ber months ! Since we were robbed of a nice June, I was ready for summer to be over with at that point.