Joe’s Weather Blog: Air you can wear…then another break (WED-8/10)

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Good morning. I went to the Royals game last night and it was interesting to watch the weather as I was getting to the stadium. It flat out poured on 435 going to the stadium north of Swope Parkway…then getting into the gate area the rain lightened up considerably…then waling from the parking lot to the stadium gate…the rain never even fell in the first place. The sun was shining through the rain as I was driving the whole time as well. It was the true definition of an isolated shower and that again could happen today. Random…could be anywhere really. Oh and it was nasty humid last night out there too after the rain fell. Our featured weather picture today comes from @TwistedSkiesWx of a pretty rainbow in the isolated showers yesterday.

Forecast:

Today: Hot and humid with highs 90-95° and head index values near 105° in spots. Isolated showers may again form this afternoon. There is also a very weak wave coming out of the western Plains…that may enhance a bit of coverage to the storms compared to yesterday.

Tonight: Any evening storms fade and another muggy night with lows in the 70s

Thursday: Hot and humid with highs potentially in the mid 90s and heat index values well above 100. This has been the day I thought would be the hottest day of the week since last weekend…and that appears still to be on target.

Friday: Increasing rain chances (perhaps more widespread). Highs in the 80s.

Discussion:

Part of my summer forecast thoughts a couple of months ago concerned the humidity levels being thick. This happens a lot (obviously) around KC…but I thought this season would be a bit more oppressive. That seems to be working out well. I was expecting enough rain to sort of keep things going and that rain would need to bake out of the ground…and hence contribute to higher humidity levels…

Another aspect of MY forecast back then was more 90° days than typical for KC. We average around 41 or so in a year…so far, including yesterday we’re around 35. We’ll tack on another 2 (depending on Friday maybe 3) this week it appears but then another break. I think that aspect of the forecast will work out in the long run but after Thursday it may take awhile to add many more. So once again we’re going to get another surge of heat and then we’re going to see and retreat in the hottest weather locally.

The blog police out there emailed me the other day and asked me about the “hot and dry” forecast we made. I know that wasn’t me making that forecast. I know MT was concerned about that potential in June. This summer has more or less turned into what I expected…although this “doughnut” hole of dryness in parts of the metro seems a bit perplexing compared to the others from 7/1 through today. So far it will go down as hotter than average…still a few weeks to see where we go though…June alone pushes us over the top on that forecast. July was near average and we’ll see about August. Through the 1st week we’re about average for the month so far and next week looks near average as well.

Since I really don’t have a lot to blog about…take a look at the data since June 1st compared to average.

map_btd

Average temperature departures since 6/1

 

map_btd (1)

Average rainfall departures since 6/1

 

The surge of heat and humidity back into the region has allowed the heat index to again be an issue in the afternoon hours especially. Hence the Heat Advisory in place now for parts of the area. There is decent potential of seeing this expand tomorrow. The counties shaded in orange represent the counties under that heat advisory.

Heat advisory counties in orange.

A cold front will be coming into the area on Friday and this will shove the heat southwards again with the higher dew points as well…hopefully the rain with and behind the front will be a bit more widespread. Not overly confident of that at his point. I’d love to see the front slow down 3-6 hours on Friday so it comes into potentially more built up heat and humidity.

It won’t be as hot over the weekend as it is for the next couple of days though.

Oh don’t forget about the Perseid meteors starting in force tomorrow night (THU) although the potential of cloud cover being an issue is there.

That’s it for today…stay cool if you can.

Joe

 

 

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