Joe’s Weather Blog: Not done with the storms/rain (THU-8/25)

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Good afternoon…soggy out there for many areas from the metro northwards after 1″-5+” of rain fell in the region overnight and into this morning. There is a lingering boundary out there lurking…really it’s a cold front of sorts that is not mostly stationary. It’s straddling the KC metro area and may trigger off a few additional storms later today. I’m more interested in what happens overnight and into Friday morning.

Forecast:

Rest of this afternoon: An isolated thunderstorm is possible. The activity doesn’t look too widespread into early this evening. Temperatures in the 80s. Muggy as well.

Tonight: Heavy rain potential will be the concern…especially LATE tonight (near or after 12AM) into tomorrow daybreak. Additional rainfall amounts may be in the 1-4″ area with the highest totals most likely from KC and southwards. There is a limited risk of severe storms with wind and hail being the main threat. Flooding though is my may concern.

Friday: AM activity fades…then drier in the afternoon I think. Highs around 80°

This weekend: Not perfectly dry…although there will be significant dry times during the days. Highs in the 80s. Muggy, especially on Sunday.

Discussion:

Well if you’re a long time blog reader…you know how I’ve been harping on the “doughnut hole” of dryness in parts of the metro. The heavy rains yesterday evening and overnight erased that hole mostly as some areas received over 5″ of rain.

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Here are some of the highest totals turned in via CoCoRaHS…1st on the KS side…

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Now on the MO side…

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As is typical…this are just points on a map or locations on a table. Your results will be different…in some cases by inches. Nature of thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours.

There was damage caused by straight line winds in parts of the area. Strongest damage seemed to be in parts of JOCO.

Now about tonight…

There is a boundary draped in the KC metro as I type this…you can actually see it on radar as a thin fine line this afternoon. Although it was more apparent closer to the noon hour than during the middle of the afternoon

The boundary appears to be from northern Ray Co>northern Clay Co to Leavenworth Co and towards Lawrence, KS

You can see it on the surface map IF you look at the winds…notice up towards STJ (St Joseph) the winds are blowing from the north>south

Now look towards OJC (JOCO Executive)…there are light to calm winds. Areas SE of KC are reporting SW winds. Heat is building nicely towards the south of KC…with near 90° air in S MO and SE KS. Meanwhile in N MO it’s closer to 75°. Dew points from KC southwards are near to above 70°…so it’s muggy.

The atmosphere has been somewhat worked over…but there still could be an isolated something develop later this afternoon.

Overnight we’ll watch the potential of storms to become more widespread especially from KC southwards (emphasis southwards). We don’t have the greatest low level jet stream tonight however and that, in the end may be helpful in keeping the worst of the rains farther south. The lurking boundary however is always a concern…we’re still in a SW flow aloft…so any little ripple moving up from the southern Plains towards the region should fire convection. That convection would move towards the ENE.

I think KC would be more on the northern side of this…with perhaps heavier rains possible south of the metro overnight. Another 1-4″ of rain is possible though should this come together and KC is certainly in the mix for something…but maybe NOT the worse.  Areas farther south of KC did not get as much rain last night as we did so they could tolerate some heavier rains.

So let’s monitor the overnight rain potential carefully…especially near midnight. The only thing that DOESN’T look right to me is the low level jet stream NOT being favorable at this point overnight for bad storms. In the end this may be our saving grace about overnight flooding potential. It’s something worth watching however…even closer to home.

Have a great afternoon! Our feature photo is from the Lees Summit area (south of 150) of the supercell yesterday evening…it was a stunner for sure! It was take by Cody Waight

Joe

 

 

 

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