Joe’s Weather Blog: Watching for more storms (FRI-8/26)

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Another productive night for rain and thunderstorms last night. Rainfall amounts exceeded 2″ in parts of the area…and it appears that JOCO was one of the hot spots again for heavier rains. New cells are developing as I type this blog out…so we’re not done with the rain to finish off the week.

Forecast:

Tonight: Storms are possible early this evening…then again tomorrow AM. Lows tonight near 70 with additional brief heavy rains possible. It won’t rain all night however.

Saturday: Storms are possible really at any time of the day. It won’t rain all day however. Highs should be into the 80s again. Pretty muggy out there as well.

Sunday: I can’t totally rule out more storms. Perhaps though not as present in the region. Highs may be warmer…85-90° with some muggy conditions.

Discussion:

This weather pattern is not one for comfortable weather forecasting. A monsoonal fetch of moisture aloft continues to stream through the Plains and various disturbances are embedded in this flow aloft. This flow, combined with low level moisture which is almost always present in abundance during the summer in KC…have combined to generate heavy rains in the storms. In other words the storms are very efficient rain producers. Over the last several days…some areas have had 4-7″ or rain…especially in the formerly drier areas in JOCO, KS and other partsof the KC metro.

nws_precip_kc_3

3 day apprx. rain totals through 7AM FRI

I noticed that Gardner was over 6.5″ and in the last 7 days overall there are 7-8″ totals from 435 in JOCO to 151st street in JOCO. Meanwhile 6-7″ totals are in JACO from near 87th st. down 71/435 towards 435 in JACO. On the northside over the past several days 2-4″ are pretty common numbers on the north side of the KC metro area.

We’re not done either. There is still quite a bit of atmospheric moisture out there. You can see what I’m referring to by talking about this “monsoonal” flow that is moving through the Plains…take a look at the latest approx. flow up at around 18,000′ or so (500 mbs)

So really the flow is coming up from Mexico through the southern Plains and towards the KC region.

In addition, you can also trace moisture from the Gulf of Mexico coming up through eastern OK towards the area as well. As we look at the surface…we notice dew points (in green below) in the upper 60s through mid 70s from here southwards.

 

So a lot going on from a moisture standpoint at the surface and aloft. To set things into motion…we have sunshine now…or at least some sun. We’re warming up and the atmosphere is once again getting more unstable.

So we’re also under a slight risk of severe weather. Hail/winds could be an issue with any storms that really get cranked later this afternoon. Some cells are popping now as a matter of fact west of the area.

and on top of all that…there are subtle but noteworthy signs that the lower part of the atmosphere may be able broadly rotate in localized areas…where the updrafts in storms are strong. This next map shows the more highlighted areas. Higher numbers above 200-250 are more notable/interesting (but even above 100 are not to be dismissed all the time)

These numbers tell me that IF things get together even a rogue funnel/tornado isn’t out of the question.

The SPC is monitoring things…

Whatever forms will move NNE…while gradually shifting eastwards over time. Lightning will also be prevalent and that too can create issues this evening for the various outdoor events (especially HS events). Please be weather aware later today and this evening.

So it’s something worth watching for sure.

Over the weekend into early next week the activity may be more scattered in nature and more variable in timing..perhaps more confined to the traditional “heat of the day” type stuff.

Our feature photo is from Allen Robertson…seeing more and more of these soon I’m sure

Joe

 

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