Joe’s Weather Blog: How rare was the KC rain? (SUN-8/28)

Capture

Good afternoon…more of the same type of weather today…basically a lather rinse repeat forecast for awhile. Temperatures are seasonably warm and the humidity is typical for summer. Scattered storms have already popped in some areas and radar will be in the “discussion” part of the blog.

Forecast:

Rest of today: Variable clouds with sct. storms. Highs near 90°

Tonight: Any evening storms fade before 9PM or so. Lows near 70°

Monday: Ditto.

Tuesday: Ditto.

Discussion:

We’ll start with radar. There have been some radar data issues this afternoon. Hopefully they get resolved…so pay attention to the time stamp.

Activity as of this writing (2PM) seems to be more prevalent across NW MO/NE KS at this time. These storms on a VERY localized basis may create heavy downpours (1″+) and also VERY localized wind gusts that could knock down some tree limbs as the thunderstorms collapse as they rain themselves out.

The satellite photo shows another area of enhanced clouds towards the east and SE of KC proper. Storms that form seem to want to drift northwards…so really most of the area is in play for at least the opportunity for a storm…but the coverage will be spotty.

The storms will create their own outflows (mini cold fronts in a sense) that will then re generate thunderstorms in arcs around the 1st storm.

No real changes are expected for the next few days. We may dry out a pinch THU>FRI as some drier air sneaks in from the north and northeast. Maybe not as hot in that span as well. This drier air could allow AM lows to drop closer to 60° with afternoon highs more in the 80-85° range.

I wanted to comment briefly on the flood scenario that played itself out on Friday night in the Downtown area. I went through the observations at the airport in Downtown KC for the event in terms of the rainfall.

From 7AM>1AM we picked up 4.24″ of rain…however in reality MOST of the rain came in a couple of hours…3.79″ worth from when the rain started (around 8:20) to about 10:23 pm. We then got about another 1/2″ after that span of time.

I went back through the records to see how often something like that occurs…

I’ve highlighted the years of “reccurence”

Unfortunately 3.79″ in 2 hours doesn’t fall “neatly” in the 25 or 50 year rains. It’s in between. So I’ve taking this one step ahead and saying that the rain we received on Friday night that created the Westport flooding was a 1 in apprx. 35 year event

I’m not sure frankly IF that assumption is right because sometimes these recurrence stats get a little confusing. Let’s go with that and IF there are any math majors out there let me know if this is a right or wrong assumption.

Right now the holiday weekend looks to feature seasonably summer temperatures (perhaps even a bit above average) and mostly dry conditions. Odds are we may have some storms around on the back half of the weekend.

That’s it for today…have a great Sunday and I’ll update the blog on Monday afternoon by 3PM or so.

Our feature picture today comes from @fatfoxcoon and shows some great cumulonimbus clouds with the setting sun yesterday.

Joe

 

 

 

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