Joe’s Weather Blog: Nice (!) summer/fall weather coming (WED-8/31)

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Good morning…still drippy out there for some areas…I was one of the thousands that persevered through the rain last night at the game. It was definitely a tough one to lose and really I think the whole stadium felt that they would at least tie it up in the bottom of the 10th. They didn’t and tonight hopefully they get the series win. It stung a bit more (lot more) because all the teams in the standing in front of them won…so we drop a game in the standings. Ouch. The rain that fell ranged from a pouring rain to a nuisance to nothing to a nuisance. They made the right decision to stop the game when they did though…and it saved the field from about 30 minutes of a downpour.

Forecast: 

Today: Variable clouds with scattered showers this morning but a drying trend as the afternoon moves along. Cooler as well with highs closer to 80°

Tonight: The cooler and drier weather flows into the area with lows 55-60°!

Thursday: A great KC weather day with highs near 80° and lower dew points to boot!

Friday: Cool in the morning and sunny in the afternoon. Highs again near 80°. (Top 10 summer day potential)

Discussion:

The rains were haphazard in nature last night and were being generated by repeated outflows there were themselves generated by showers and storms. As the cells rained themselves out, new showers/storms would develop. They didn’t move much at all…more or less stationary…so they would basically have to rain themselves out. Some areas got 1/2-2″ of rain.

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Doppler indicated rain totals

The big weather story (locally) will be the cooler temperatures over the next few days. as you may remember I’ve been thinking we may be closer to about 80° for the end of the week and I still think that should happen. Take a look at a few model forecasts off the GFS model for temperature anomalies at 1PM into the weekend.

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THU at 1PM

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FRI at 1PM

 

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SAT at 1PM

Our average high is quickly dropping into the 80-85° range to start the month of September…so you can see cooler than average conditions are likely. The air will be dry as well with lower dew points. The cooler air will start rotating away towards the end of the weekend and warmer and slowly more more humid air will return for the holiday (closer to 90°).

Temperature wise this has been about as “typical” as they come for August…about average. Rainfall wise though…it’s been wet. Over 9″ worth at KCI…with many other locations easily in the double digits for rainfall. KCI had another .77″ overnight and that is NOT included in this chart showing the wettest Augusts in KC weather history.

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August rain totals…2016 data doesn’t include the overnight and today rainfall.

We’ve had .77″ so far today at KCI…bringing our monthly total to 9.16″. One step above us is 9.18″. We’ll see if we can get there this morning.

Overall this will be the 40th (or thereabouts) warmest summer in KC weather record keeping (going back to the late 1880s which is in the top 1/3 of warm summers. The month of June was the big influence on that. It will be in the top 15 of wet summers (6/1-8/31) as well.

Finally a look into the tropics where there are several systems threatening. Our 1st stop is Hawaii where a rare hurricane warning is in effect for the Big Island due to Madeline.

It doesn’t look so healthy on the latest satellite pictures

…but it will be a high surf machine for the east facing coastline. Here is a look at radar from there.

Closer to the mainland…there is a tropical depression in the VERY warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Concerning because IF it can get it’s act together it may do so quickly as it comes closer to shore over the next few days.

Precautionary hurricane watches are in effect just in case for NW FL.

despite the system having it’s troubles getting together it should be able to generate some pretty decent storm surge whenever it comes ashore. Plus there is a flooding concern as well with this into FL.

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Storm surge information…some 6’+ areas are possible along the coastline

Rainfall forecast through Saturday at 7PM

wpc_total_precip_florida_14

Meanwhile another tropical depression (winds in the storm are under 39 MPH) is off the Carolinas.

and finally Gaston is a “fish” storm out in the Atlantic Ocean.

It’s a major hurricane (over 110 MPH) as of this writing.

 

Our feature photo comes from @winstonandlily! Nice cloud shots from OPKS

Joe

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