Joe’s Weather Blog: Great for us…bad back east (FRI-9/2)

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Happy TGIF! I hope you have plans to do something outdoors. Maybe take a walk…enjoy some football…check out the Royals…go to Irish Fest…Santa-Cali-Gon Days…whatever…it’s going to be great this weekend. Meanwhile back east there are some concerning trends being noted in the model data about Tropical Storm Hermine which came ashore earlier this morning. It may actually do more damage early next week than it has already. I’ll write more about that in a few minutes.

Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies with some higher clouds filtering out the moonlight overnight. lows in the 50s to near 60°

Saturday: Mostly sunny and great with highs near 80°

Sunday: A little warmer with partly cloudy skies and highs 80-85°.

Monday (Labor Day): Sunny and warmer with highs near 90°

Discussion:

All good in KC…warmer next week (Monday>Wednesday) and becoming muggy as well. Winds ill be on the increase too. Next rain chance of any significance may be next Thursday. 90s will be back in the area next week as well until the next cold front comes in.

Since nothing is happening here…

Hermine came ashore last night towards the SE of Tallahassee, FL. Storm surge combined with gusty winds have knocked out power from FL through SC this afternoon and for some it may take 10+ days to get their power back. Imagine living down there with the heat and humidity and no power to cool things down with fans or A/C. Yikes.

It’s been a LONG(!) time since FL has dealt with this type of weather…and it’s been quite some time, amazingly, since the Gulf Of Mexico even had a hurricane in it to begin with!

Hermine is now on it’s way to SC.

Notice in the graphic above…it’s forecast to go off the coast of NC sometime Saturday morning…

From there things get concerning…because there is a LOT of abnormally warm waters sitting in the western Atlantic near the east coast.

Once the storm gets back into that warm water pool…it may try to restrengthen again. There is a LOT of potential energy waiting to re-fuel this thing.

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Notice that ribbon of heat potential going up the coastline of the eastern US…

Here is the latest satellite pictures…you can clearly see this storm in the SE part of the country.

The concern is that once it gets back over water it strengthens…on top of that it may then stall or at least sit and spin around (wobble) for several days next week. That would create a persistent rush of wind and water into the NE part of the country.

This would potentially lead to major beach/coastal/tide problems that could be stretched over a couple of days of high tides…creating more issues.

Check out the wind forecast off the GFS model for Monday morning.

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Wind forecast for Monday

It should be noted that IF the storm is farther west…which some model data indicates there could be a real bad situation developing especially from NY/NJ/DE.

What happens is when a storm just spins around…it just keeps a tide/surge onslaught going against the beaches. The sand can put up a small fight…but the erosion winds rather quickly and when you then add in the waves to the churning waters it creates even faster erosion. All this on a holiday weekend in which there is concern that folks back east may not be taking this as seriously as they should be (coastal areas mainly).

This could turn into a major weather story as the weekend unfolds. Cue the “didn’t know it was coming…didn’t expect this…didn’t think it would be this bad” statements in 3…2…1

Again where it stalls or wobbles will be the key in determining how bad things get there. There are some twitter references already to Sandy from a few years ago…while a stretch…it bears watching.

Oh and then there’s this…

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Rain forecast through Tuesday 1PM

Potentially some bad times back east.

Have a great weekend…I’ll get a blog update out on Saturday afternoon!

Our feature photo comes from Allen Robertson. He shot this this morning in JOCO, KS and was surprised to see a fox just hanging around.

Joe

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