Joe’s Weather Blog: A warmer week ahead for KC + some rain (MON-9/5)

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Good morning…as I promised over the weekend the south winds will be a factor over the next few days and we’re already seeing the effects of those winds because the morning lows are coming up (68° this morning) and the afternoon highs are going up as well (near 90° today). Dew points which were in the 50s are also now firmly in the 60s and are climbing to the 70s today. So muggier times are on tap for the region as well. This will mostly be a windy and warm week in KC…with rain chances increasing into Thursday and Friday.

Forecast:

Today: Sunny and warm with highs near 90° and heat index values near 95°. Winds will be from the south at 15-25 MPH

Tonight: Fair and mild with lows 70-75°

Tuesday/Wednesday: Partly cloudy ad warm with highs 90-95° and heat index values near 100°. Winds will be from the south at 15-30 MPH. There may be an isolated shower or two in the region on Wednesday.

Discussion:

The nice and pleasant air mass of the last several days has moved away from the region and south winds now are taking control. Dew points are increasing and the “muggy” factor is increasing as well this morning.

The morning surface weather map clearly shows south flow well entrenched in the area.

sfc

9AM surface map

There is a cold front well to the west of the region…it won’t play a factor in our weather for awhile…but it will try to nudge closer to us over the next few days.

With the flow aloft being solidly from the SSW to the NNE over the next few days…we’ll be watching what is happening down towards TX and Mexico for weak ripples that could create some areas of rain in the Plains. There are subtle signs that a small wave could be generated and move this way sometime on Wednesday. Whether or not it can generate much rain remains to be seen but I wouldn’t be surprised if there are some weird type scattered showers or storms moving quickly NNEwards on Wednesday at least somewhere in the viewing area.

Tomorrow we’ll be watching the satellite pictures to see if any small wave can be generated down towards Mexico that would streak NE wards.

The following information from windty.com shows the flow at around 20,000′ feet or so…near or just above the 500 mb level. At this level the winds aren’t really being affected by frictional effects of the land.

There are several features that can be seen…one is what’s left of Hermine off the east coast…another is the broad trough (or dip in the jet stream) also IF you look down towards the lower left side…off the coast of Baja CA there is a new tropical storm in the eastern Pacific…named Newton

 

This may bring some significant rains to at least parts of AZ which would be welcome there during the middle of the week.

I don’t think the moisture from this storm will effect us UNLESS there is a slowdown of the next trough to move through our area later in the week.

So what we’re left with to talk about this week is a cold front (that actually will sweep the muggy weather away). This front will move through the area sometime on Friday. Rain chances will be increasing on Thursday into Friday especially. There may be some weird little wave coming towards us on Thursday (sort of like a monsoonal wave caught in the SW flow aloft)…then the front moves in on Friday.

Meanwhile on the subject of Hermine…it’s still there…now classified as a “post” tropical storm. It has the structure now more of a nor’easter than of a tropical system. The convection with the storm is flung far and wide from the center of the storm.

Interestingly at least looking this morning…there are 2 different areas of circulation spinning around each other. What will need to be watched is whether or not any convection develops around one of the areas of circulation. Although this thing has really churned up the ocean and “upwelled” cooler water temperatures…so the “fuel” for storms like this to redevelop tropical characteristics isn’t nearly as plentiful now as it was several days ago.

Winds, especially towards Cape Cod are gusting to 40 MPH this morning…

Capture

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Cape Cod towards Long Island, NY. The surf is still running pretty high there.

 

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Wave forecast via WeatherBell

One other note about the storm…remember last winter when a cruise ship called the “Anthem Of The Seas” was caught in a monster nor’easter off the east coast. The ship was sailing through winds of 100-125 MPH+ winds…waves of over 30-40 feet…not exactly the way a cruise should go.

Well guess what…here they are again going through Hermine yesterday

The good news is that their cruise to Bermuda is going much better today.

One of these days…these type of stories aren’t going to end as well for these types of cruises.

My guess is that they were trying to go as far east as possible before turning south.  When Hermine went a bit further east than model projections they may have been caught.

I did look at this web site yesterday as this was unfolding through…and they were the only cruise ship (there were container and freighters out there as well) doing this…thankfully they’ve docked in Bermuda it appears.

A lot of sea sickness reported yesterday…which doesn’t sound like fun at all.

Our feature photo today is from Carolyn Mallin…

Joe

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2 comments

  • Amae

    Joe,
    The first comment below makes no sense at all. Is it possible they thought they were on another site ? Anyway, it still makes no sense.

    Hard to believe the Anthem of the Seas would do that again ! But, when reservations are made weeks/months in advance, I guess it is not feasible for the cruise line to cancel trips on a “projected/predicted” storm track. But, I agree with you. One of these times it will not end well.
    Thanks for the blog today Joe.