Joe’s Weather Blog: Rain coming again and so is more cool air (WED-9/7)

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It’s been rather warm and humid over the last few days and today will not be much of an exception to that although clouds will be on the increase and there may be some shower activity out there. The better rain chances though will wait for a bit. Overall though IF you have plans for the weekend…it looks phenomenal again!

Forecast:

Today: Increasing clouds windy and warm with highs well into the 80s. Winds will be from the south at 15-25 MPH. Clouds will move into the area as the day moves along and there may be some showers in there as well this afternoon. Coverage though is a bit if a question mark. Rain amounts locally don’t look to be overly high. Chance 30% in PM

Tonight: Scattered showers/storms are possible overnight with lows in the 60s. Chance 40%

Thursday: Variable clouds with storms again possible. Highs into the 80s. Muggy as well. Chances are about 40% but higher in AM south of KC and overall it may be a dry day for the KC are and points north.

Friday: This will be our best chance of widespread storminess, especially towards the evening and overnight. Locally heavy rains are possible as well. Highs in the 80s. Chance 80%

Discussion:

A lot going on in the atmosphere this morning as what is left of Hurricane Newton should create flooding rains in parts of the SW US today…while indirectly moisture from the fading storm is flowing through the central US helping to moisten the atmosphere quite a bit. This sets the stage for flooding rains in parts of the upper Midwest into the Plains states over the next few days. It won’t be a question of moisture available…the only question is where exactly do thunderstorms form and when does the process really get going in earnest.

Over the past weekend I mentioned that today there may be some “appetizer” storms in the region and that is going to play out I suspect. Already radar is showing some activity well west of the area this morning. This action may stay farther NW of KC this morning.

It also may establish some sort of outflow boundary a bit closer to KC that will need to be monitored for additional new scattered storms this evening closer to home.

The morning surface weather map shows a stalled boundary that is hanging around the Plains.

sfc

8AM surface map

This boundary has been there for a few days now (in roughly the same region) and we’ve had a persistent flow of south winds since Sunday evening. This has allowed the surface dew points to easily get into the 70s. So that is the muggy factor in play.

That boundary to the west may or may not get closer to us depending on the thunderstorm development through Thursday. The closer it gets the higher the rain chances here.

In reality the best rain chances will come on Friday in the region as a whole. It should be noted that with so much moisture in the atmosphere any pre-Friday storm that comes along will be capable of producing quite a bit of rain. Take a look at the water vapor loop showing the higher moisture in the atmosphere. You can see the remnants of the hurricane coming into the SW US. I’m not sure I can say that a lot of the moisture in the atmosphere in the Plains is tied to Newton. There was going to be quite a bit coming our way regardless of whether or not Newton was present. Really though if you look into the eastern reaches of NM and W TX…there is a wave down there that is going to move our way later today. This may be responsible for triggering at least some convection overnight around the KC area.

By the way…Newton will be bringing a bunch of rain to the desert of AZ today.

On average Tuscon, AZ gets about 11.6″ of rainfall in a year…they’re already at that amount…so from here on out whatever they get will push them above average for the year as a whole.

Interestingly…Newton is still a tropical storm. IF it crosses into AZ from Mexico as a tropical storm…it will be a somewhat rare occurrence.

 

The last time it happened was 1997.

These rain chances will end by early Saturday morning as a decent for September cold front comes through the reigon sweeping the warmth and moisture away from the area. Temperatures over the weekend look phenomenal with highs in the 70s on Saturday and then around 80┬░ on Sunday. Perfect for football although once again the HS games on Friday night along with Sporting KC may have weather issues that you should be aware of.

Again the next couple of days are a bit dicey at times…then the weekend is great! Another stornger front should arrive early next week that may send highs well below average for┬áseveral days in a row.

Joe

 

 

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