Joe’s Weather Blog: Summer Redux + fall temps lurking (SUN-9/18)

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Good afternoon. Bright and blue out there today with temperatures approaching 80° as of the noon hour. Our weather will be characterized by warmer winds and higher dew points. That means that summer is going to return to the area and it will linger for the work week. There will be a more significant change in the weather next weekend including more rain chances and much cooler weather moving in to finish the month.

Forecast:

Tonight: Fair and mild with lows in the 60s. Average low is down to 55-60°.

Monday: Mostly sunny, breezy and warm with highs 85-90°. Dew points will be increasing as well in the afternoon especially so it will “feel” hotter.

Tuesday>Friday: Breezy, hot and humid with highs 85-90…lows near 70 and south winds of 10-25 MPH.

Discussion:

I thought this morning we’d start with an optical phenomena that that isn’t seen that often in pictures sent in to the FOX 4 Weahter. That is what we call a “fogbow”.

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This picture from Saturday morning was sent in by Misty Wheeler

A fogbow is similar to a rainbow except it forms in foggy areas. Often times the colors of a typical rainbow don’t readily appear in a fogbow because the water drops that contribute to a fogbow are so very small. Occasionally you’ll see some reddish color in the outer part and a very faint bluish color in the inner part.

They can be witnessed when the sun is behind the head of the observor and the “bow” is in the direction of the fog being witnessed.

They are also sometimes called white rainbows. Here is more information.

As you know this summer has been a jackpot of cool clouds, formations. sunrises and sunsets. The beat rolls on.

There is not a lot of interesting weather this week aside from the heat. Fall starts on Thursday at 9:21 am. Temperatures aloft will be running above average…we’ll have enough wind to stir the atmosphere and as a result we should be closer to 90° most of the week with heat index values closer to 95°+. In other words the last week of summer will be toasty for the region.

The hotter air tomorrow will be, aloft at least, coming in from the western Plains. These hot air surges, if you get enough wind to mix the atmosphere up more, are notorious for heating up at the surface more than forecasts indicate. I’m wondering IF we can pop above 90° tomorrow afternoon. One counter to that is everything is green and very wet…so there is a lot of moisture in the ground that tends to hold off the worst of the heat. The winds are not overly strong…but if we’re getting some 25 MPH wind gusts…we could pop to 90°.

90°+ days on September 19th don’t come that often in the weather world here in KC. Here is a look at the hottest 9/19’s in KC weather record history.

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Highs of 90°+ on September 19th

On Tuesday a weak front will sort of struggle to get to near the I-70 corridor. I can’t totally rule out an isolated shower/storm with the front, especially north of KC later Monday night into Tuesday but odds are not good. This front may allow the surface winds to switch briefly towards the east or SE. This may knock a few degrees off the highs.

Then we’re back into the heat WED>Friday at least.

Next weekend will feature a weather change of sorts. As cooler air aloft will be moving into the Plains states and that cooler air will also be realized at the surface. So we’ll get rid of the summer air and replace it by nice fall air. There will be rain with the transition although the timing of said rain is a question. Yesterday it looked like Saturday was the transition day…now it may be Sunday. The longer we wait the warmer we stay. A lot of outdoor things happening next weekend including the Plaza Art Fair.

While this is a model forecast…it does give you an idea of the temperature trends for the next 10+ days. This was from the overnight run…so I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a warmer day int here in Saturday in the new data that hasn’t come in yet.

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GFS ensemble model forecasts

Finally while September isn’t exactly known for tornadoes…especially in western TX…this happened yesterday in the Permian Basin area of west Texas.

Here is another view from Odessa. Football fans were leaving he stadium and odds are had no clue what was happening to their northwest.

Interesting stuff…used to work there before I came to KC some 22 years ago.

Have a great week and I’ll try and get a blog update out in the morning. Could be a desk-cleaning blog too. Our feature photo today is from Art White from Pleasant Hill, MO

Joe

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