Joe’s Weather Blog: Goodbye summer…hello summer (WED-9/21)

Good morning…with heat index values around 100° over the past couple of days…it’s been anything but fall-like weather around these parts. With fall starting at 9:21 AM on Thursday…the weather will not be turning on a dime. More hot and humid weather is expected into Friday…beyond that some significant changes are on tap…including the potential for heavy rains and also highs in the 60s! The timing on this though may affect outdoor activities later Saturday into Sunday…and potentially at least part of Monday. Be alert to this potential. A slow moving cold front will be the culprit and int he end highs may be in the 60s to near 70° for a couple of days.

Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny with some high clouds. Highs near 90°. Heat indices will be around 95-100°. It’s possible the dew points may not be as extreme as they have been.

Tonight: Fair and warm with lows in the 70s

Thursday (hello fall): Summer continues with highs well into the 80s

Friday: No real changes…highs near 90°

Discussion:

Hey it could be worse…did you know that winter on Uranus lasts for over 150 YEARS!. More on the seasons that change here and elsewhere in this article I saw this morning.

So yes…Thursday is fall. The lows this morning were in the middle 70s. The low of 75° may be a record breaker too!

capture

Warmest low temperatures on 9/21…IF our low of 75° stands…it will shatter the previous record

That’s something you don’t see all that often.

So we’re in a persistent flow of warm and humid air. This has been well forecasted and will continue through Friday. Dew points near 70° (higher in places) combined with temperatures near 90° are giving us July weather in September. While we haven’t set any record highs (missing by 4° yesterday) it’s been oppressive for sure.

These south winds will continue into Saturday as a slow moving cold front moves through the Plains. The front in question may be a slow mover through the region. This will complicate the timing and especially the ending of the rains. The slower the front creeps eastwards the longer it will take the rain to wind down.

gfs_6hr_precip_mc_16

GFS forecast for 7PM Saturday

As the front slides slowly eastwards…the rain arrives at some point on Saturday. So we’ll stay warm on Saturday. The changes are coming on Sunday from a temperature standpoint.

Look at the forecasted GFS temperatures for 1PM on Sunday…this would be for the tailgaters at Arrowhead.

gfs_t2m_b_mc_19

1PM forecasted GFS temperatures

The EURO model isn’t as cold but still chilly…60s. Confidence is certainly increasing that after potentially some sort of 12AM high or something…temperatures on Sunday may only be in the 60s for the daytime.

So what is the real culprit of all this. It’s a strong upper level storm off the NW USA. Can you see it on the water vapor loop off the Pacific NW coast.

 

That upper level storm will be moving into the Rockies…and splitting. One piece will move through the northern Rockies towards ND and another will drop into the southern Rockies and then into the southern Plains. The EURO does look a bit bizarre how it’s handling that evolution..creating a large upper level (new) storm near Wichita on Tuesday. This would then lock us in clouds for several days next week. The GFS is more progressive with this. Even that model though creates a rather large and new upper level storm that is cutoff from the jet stream across the upper Midwest. This results in a continuous flow of chilly air through the Plains through the KC area. In the end the models sort of get to the same place later next week…and as a result the chances of below average temperatures next week is rather high.

Should the data hold later this afternoon…I will be cutting the current forecast temperatures for the evening shows.

kmci_2016092106_tx_240

GFS forecasts for the next 10 days

So yes fall will arrive tomorrow…from a temperature standpoint though fall really gets here on Sunday.

Another note…might be a good time to get some fertilizer/seed down to start the lawn renovations (if you haven’t already).

The feature photo today comes from Cindy Tomlin Keeports…with the sun shining over Blue Springs Lake

Joe

 

 

 

 

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