Joe’s Weather Blog: Falling raindrops and temperatures (SAT-9/24)
Good afternoon. Another rather warm day around the region as temperatures as of the noon hour are into the middle 80s and we should scrape close to 90° in some areas before the day is done. Dew points are approaching 70° also. So there is a bit more of a muggy “feel” to the air today. This is in advance of a cold front that won’t move through the area till tomorrow after daybreak. It’s effects though will be noticeable for the next 5 days.
This afternoon: An isolated shower or storm is possible anytime really, especially on the KS side. Whatever forms won’t last long and should move from the south to the north. Highs 85-90°
Tonight: Increasing rain/storm chances as the evening and overnight move along. The activity may take awhile though to spread farther east of the KC metro area. When the rain arrives it will come in waves and some locally heavy rain is possible overnight into Sunday morning. Lows near 70°
Sunday: Rain chances continue through the early afternoon with drying moving into the area towards 2PM from the west to the east. I think the game may be OK but again as we’ve preached for several days…tailgaters should be concerned about the rain. Temperatures will drop during the morning into the 60s then level off and may try to recover to about 65-70° later in the afternoon or early in the evening as we clear out a bit.
Monday: Looking great with lows near 45-50° and highs around 70°. Perfection!
We’re going to have a work week more characterized by the perfect weather that often affects San Diego. All we need is an ocean and we’d be in business. Somehow we’ll make due though I’m sure.
The noon weather map shows a cold front to the west of the region.
Ahead of the front south winds are again starting to help increase the dew points. We actually had a bit of a dew point break for the last 2 days…but this afternoon dew points are again near or above 70°.
There is already some “appetizer” storms/rain out towards the west of the KC area.
Here is a look at the NWS radar from Topeka…
Now closer to home from Pleasant Hill
I’m not going to be surprised to see some isolated showers develop in eastern KS in the next few hours. we’re not really capped anymore and with temperatures near 90° we have instability that is free to rise through the atmosphere. Whatever forms will be brief and somewhat isolated.
The HRRR model (run through 18 hours) shows this somewhat. It does love to over generate storms…the area really to watch is out towards the west and southwest of the region.
As additional areas of rain form towards Emporia through Oklahoma City and move towards the NE…the KC metro area will get more into the the action but that may not happen till tonight. So whatever we get ahead of that shouldn’t be too bad or last too long.
The chances of better widespread rains move through the area tonight. Some locally heavy rains are possible and with a pretty juicy atmosphere in place some areas may see some heavy rains. I think the better chances of 2″+ rains will be northwest of KC towards NW MO and NE KS..the KC area may be more in the .5-1.5″ range.
At this point the severe weather risk looks rather minimal thanks in part to the late arrival of decent storms into the region. Something isolated wouldn’t be shocking in NW MO and NE KS later today or this evening. Here is the hi res NAM model showing the evolution overnight into Sunday of the rain moving through. Via Tropical Tidbits.
So the cooler air comes in behind the front tomorrow morning. Odds are we start near 70 around daybreak and then waver a few degrees before dropping into the 60s behind the front. So assuming we have some rain in the area through lunch…we should be closer to 65° at noon Sunday. Then as the rain moves towards central MO we will start to brighten the skies later in the day and temperatures will come back up a few degrees. Overall a nice change in the weather tomorrow for those who want the A/C to rest for awhile.
As a matter of fact IF we go up to about 5000′ or so in the atmosphere you can see the change in air masses better. The warm air mass in place today and the cooler air mass coming in tomorrow.
There is not a lot to talk about for most of next week. It will be phenomenal with lows a couple of mornings in the 40s and highs nicely in the 70s for most of the week. Ideal weather really so enjoy the weather change and enjoy the fall weather in KC.
Our feature photo comes from Sherry Cheek Odell again. She;s on a roll for rural Clay County!