Joe’s Weather Blog: The perfection continues + Matthew (WED-9/28)


Our great stretch of weather continues and there won’t be anything significant weather-wise happening around these parts for about a week or so. There will be some temperature fluctuations (we’re seeing some today) but overall the forecast is very nice as we’re enjoying, potentially the best fall weather stretch of the season that ends in mid December.


Tonight: Mostly clear. There may be some clouds at times. Temperatures should tank into the 40s. On the assumption that the cloud cover isn’t anything too widespread. If so it won’t be as cool.

Thursday: Any morning clouds will be replaced by sunshine. Another great temperature day with highs around 70°

Friday: Mostly sunny and pleasant with highs near 70°


I promised you San Diego type weather in KC this past weekend…I’d say that was a good forecast! In all honesty though…our weather is better than theirs. They’ve been dealing with some rather nasty heat out there lately. As I type this…it’s 91° (not even noon out there local time). You can see their temperature trend lately…it’s been up!


For us, we’ve obviously broken the back of summer weather locally. It was 1 week ago that we were fighting a heat index around 100°. Tonight we should drop into the 40s for some sweater weather!

The latest surface map (temperatures in RED) show the cooler air and the northerly wind flow very established in the MO River Valley area.

The darker blue circles indicate lower “ceilings” or lower visibilities. In this case it’s for lower clouds that are quite prevalent up there as you can see on the afternoon satellite picture.

Odds are most of the clouds cover stays N/NE of here…but it’s worth monitoring in case a bit more sneaks into the area overnight. That would stop any temperature fall and in fact allow temperatures to edge back up overnight.

That cloud cover is associated with an upper level storm spinning around towards the Great Lakes. You can see it spinning on the water vapor loop.

That upper low will wallow around and eventually lift towards the Lakes region and then scoot off towards the  east into the NE part of the country next week before eventually going off shore.

Since we’re on the western side of this feature…we should remain in a cooler that average air mass into the weekend. The cool air flowing southwards today>Friday will just sort of get stuck in the region. As a result…it will take awhile for modification to take place.

As the upper level storm to the east gets farther away next week…and a new incoming wave moves into the western part of the country and spreads towards the Rockies…we will indeed start the warming process.

This next storm is just now crossing the coast into western ALASKA. It’s a long ways off and will sort of merge with an upper level low off the coast of the NW US. This will then move into the western US next week and come out into the Plains/Rockies early next week.

It’s the type of upper level energy that should fuel t/storms…there will be issues with the potential however including adequate moisture return etc. locally however the chances of storms do appear better the farther west and NW you get from KC…towards the central Plains states. Depending on the timing of when the front, that will be attached to the surface storm, moves through…we’ll see whether or not we can get at least some rain locally.

The beautiful fall weather is great…and we’ve needed some time to dry out…but we’ll be wanting, at least, some rain next week. The dry air will really tap out the top soil heading into the weekend.

I don’t want to get too involved with something though that might be a week away locally.

Meanwhile let’s talk about a developing tropical storm. Matthew is the latest system that was named today.

What has meteorologists very interested in this feature is that there is a lot of different model solutions for next week…in what may be a rather powerful storm. It seems every storm this year hasn’t really fulfilled it’s potential. this one has a chance though…one plus for it is the amount of heat that the storm could tap into via the warm waters of the Caribbean.

That red/white area shows some significant warm water…ready to fuel Matthew.

Notice in the top graphic,…the track. Notice that abrupt possible turn towards the north. There is no guarantee that turn will happen where the current forecast says it will happen. Then to complicate things…the storm potentially could slow to turtle’s pace in off of the SE part of the country so that 7-10 days from now…we’re still wondering what happens to it.

The EURO model has a massive hurricane in the far SE Bahamas next Wednesday. The GFS isn’t quite as “bombastic” but still has a hurricane just a bit farther west…then it gets the awfully close to the outer banks of NC a week from tomorrow. The GFS ensembles…which are multiple lower resolution computer simulations of the GFS model…just with different initializations paints this picture. You can average all of it together…or you can see the discrepancies between all the individual  “L”s that show the potential center locations.


My thought is that the L off Long Island, NY is spurious and won’t happen. All the other L’s though could happen as could something else…it’s a week away. IF you have friends or family though heading in that direction…it’s worth alerting them, if nothing else, to just start paying attention to the storm.

OK…I got detoured…

Our feature photo…from one of our best…Mark Schierholz…of a great full rainbow with the setting sun. Somewhat unusual too!


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