Joe’s Weather Blog: Clouds creep into area + Matthew (FRI-9/30)
Good afternoon. We’re finishing off the month of September on a high weather note today. Sunshine and temperatures up into the 70s have created more spectacular weather in the region. That’s really been the case all week long. Over the weekend however things will be changing as clouds will encroach on the area during the wee hours of Saturday and it appears the day may be much grayer than the weather we’ve seen lately.
Tonight: Clear skies this evening. After 9PM or so clouds will back into the area from the east and northeast towards KC. Temperatures may fall into the 50s but then go up overnight as the clouds fill in. When you wake up in the morning we may be closer to or above 55°. Areas farther SW of KC will be cooler with more clear weather.
Saturday: pretty cloudy overall with occasional breaks. It wouldn’t shock me IF there were a few VERY light showers or sprinkles east of KC in the afternoon. Highs in the 60s from KC eastwards. Areas SW of KC may see additional sunshine with highs in the 70s.
Sunday: Variable clouds and seasonable with highs near 75°
Our next real change in the weather is scheduled for NEXT Wednesday the 5th. Until then there will be subtle changes to our skies in the KC area. Clouds will start to become a more common feature starting Saturday morning and be around for a good part of the day.
For the last several days there has been a cut-off upper level storm spinning aroung the OH Valley. It’s still there this afternoon.
Notice the cloud cover in eastern MO/IA…that moisture/cloud cover will be moving westwards/southwestwards overnight and eventually moving into our region early Saturday.
Now notice the 1PM temperatures where the clouds are most prevalent…only around 65°
Note all those blue circles…indicating airport conditions with lower clouds…and again the temperatures are in RED. So locally today our temperature at 1PM is 72° while Kirksville is 66° and Peoria, IL is 62°. You can see how, assuming we get into that cloud cover Saturday…we should be cooler than today. There are some showers as well in IL…and the atmosphere will be somewhat unstable in the PM locally tomorrow…so an ISOLATED shower is possible Saturday farther towards the east of KC between Odessa and Columbia, MO.
The moisture may thin somewhat on Sunday allowing for more sunshine and temperatures to pop into the mid 70s. The upper level low towards the OH Valley today will scoot ENEwards and take the moisture that moves into the area with it more or less. In reality the clouds will thin and break more on Sunday in the early October sun.
Subtle changes like I mentioned…
More substantive changes occur after Monday. Clouds will be increasing on Tuesday…mostly upper level moisture. This will filter the sunshine quite a bit. With that said warmer air is going to move farther northwards early next week so near 80° days are likely.
Beyond Tuesday is when the weather changes more. A rather decent upper level storm will be moving through the upper Midwest. There may be a southern disturbance that could help a bit with the rain situation around these parts Wednesday. Here is the upper level pattern (18,000′ up) showing these features +_ Matthew.
There is a small little kink showing perhaps some energy on the bottom of the “trof”. We’ll watch that.
Regardless, at the surface there will be a surface storm along the US/Canadian border…and a cold front attached to it draping down in the Plains states. Severe weather may develop out to the west of the region later Tuesday (we’ll see) and then those storms (fading) will move into the region sometime early Wednesday. That will be our rain chance Wednesday. IF this “southern” wave has some pop to it…it could slow the front to a crawl as it moves through the area Wednesday perhaps allowing for some bonus rainfall to develop…but that really remains to be seen!
Then there is Matthew. This is going to be problematic for the Bahamas especially and sooner for Jamaica/Eastern Cuba and the Dominican Republic region.
Matthew this morning and early afternoon has been getting MUCH better organized. The upper level shear that it was experiencing seems to not be slowing it down. Notice in the pics below this afternoon the increasing appearance of an “eye”.
Recon aircraft indicate that Matthew has strengthened to 120 MPH as of this writing. The central pressure of the storm has been dropping for most of the day.
Check out the top left hand chart…of a RECON flight through Matthew. This is courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.
The charts are fascinating but IF you look at the top left one…the BLUE line represents the flight level winds…the RED line the pressure. Notice when the pressure and the tanks/dips…that’s the plane flying through the center of the storm. The winds drop off as well. Then when the plane flies through the eye wall, where the winds are typically strongest…the pressure goes up and the winds go up (FAST). So you can see the eyewall penetrations that the hurricane hunter aircraft goes.
The future of Matthew is concerning…especially for the Bahamas next week.
Now it’s very possible to likely that the hurricane will weaken somewhat MON>TUE because of land interactions with Jamaica and Cuba. Mountains and hurricanes don’t do well together. The higher terrain interrupts the flow of air entering the hurricanes circulation + with the center near or over land…the “gas” for the storm runs low.
There is still a LOT of warm(!) water though sitting in the Bahamas though and that is going to help the storm out at some point. There are over 700 islands in the Bahamas, many without anyone living on them. Here is a map of a handful of them via Worldatlas.com
The biggest island size wise is Andros…then Grand Bahama Island is decently sized as well.
Here is a spectrum of model guidance…all sort of singing the same tune.
The north turn in the Caribbean will be a key. When and where does it happen. Then how long does it take Matthew to churn through the Bahamas. The EURO model brings it into the Bahamas Tuesday and continues the onslaught for the rest of the work week…devastating the islands and sending the atmospheric pressure down to Category 5 levels…this would be a terrible scenario for the Bahamas. Many of the islands are only a few feet above sea level to begin with. To compound the situation the storm stalls near the Islands next weekend then retreats back TO the Island chain. Again this is just one model…and its likely wrong…but still…
Something like this sort of happened in 2015. Joaquin did some strange things roughly right about this time of the year too!
This will become a big news story next week (if not earlier). Meanwhile IF you are planning to or know somebody vacationing in the Bahamas or Jamaica…ALERT THEM if they don’t follow this type of information.
Our feature photo today is from Sherry Creek Odell up in rural Clay county.