Joe’s Weather Blog: Busy weather week ahead (SUN-10/2)

Good afternoon and thanks for spending a few minutes reading the FOX 4 Weather Blog. A rather pleasant day for many while areas east of the state line by about 30 miles and eastwards are stuck in the cloud cover and the cooler weather. These were the clouds that we’re straddling the KC area yesterday.


Tonight: Clear skies except cloudy farther east of KC. Lows in the 50s although near 60° where the clouds are prevalent.

Monday: Partly cloudy and mild with highs in the mid 70s

Tuesday: Variable clouds and warmer with highs 75-80°. Windy as well with gusts to over 25 MPH. There may be some showers NW of KC during the day but the better rain chances arrive overnight into Wednesday early morning.


Another day where the simple black and white visible satellite pictures tell the weather story of the day in terms of who has the cloud cover…and who doesn’t.

Notice the lumpier texture to the clouds farther east of KC…there may be a few sprinkles mixed in there although radar isn’t overly impressive at this point. We should see a slow NE movement to those clouds tomorrow morning.

Where the clouds are hanging around…temperatures are near 70°…where the clouds are not an issue, it’s about 5° warmer.

It was interesting to see the effect of these clouds on the overnight/AM temperatures. Wherre skies were clear temperatures bottomed out in the 45-50° range…KCI tanked to 49°.

Farther east though…where the clouds were an issue all night…they acted as a “blanket” and reflected the heat back to the ground (a simplistic way of looking at it). As a result for Chillicothe, for example, the low was 61°

As of the 1PM hour the temperatures are showing the effects of the clouds to a certain extent. Let’s see if things become a bit more apparent in the next few hours. The numbers in RED below are the temperatures.

Onwards…to our next weather change.

This has been written about quite a bit over the last week already. There is an upper level storm that will be developing and moving through the western US and northern Rockies over the next several days. The change since I wrote about it last is that the southern wave that will be attached to the main trof is going to be a bigger issue in the eventual weather outcome this week.

This means 2 things. 1) that there will be a more than decent chance of rain early Wednesday…and 2) a better chance of more decent rain on Thursday connected to the main cold front that will sweep through the area and cool things off later in the week.

With the upper level storm moving so far north…the push to the initial cold front moving through the Plains on Tuesday will be drooping as the front moves eastwards. There should be thunderstorms forming later Tuesday (severe weather potential out west) and those storms are going to move towards the ENE towards KC. Odds favor what’s left of them to move through early Wednesday. The front itself probably won’t make it to the KC area or IF it does will barely be a wind shift before it falls apart and the winds quickly switch back towards the south.

Here is a look at the 500 mb flow (about 18,000′ up)


Wednesday 7PM 500 mb map…the 2nd wave (dip) from near Salt Lake southwards is the wave

This 2nd wave will allow a stronger push of cool air to get together and flow through the Plains in its wake. This will firm up a cold front on Thursday and that front will have moisture to work with as it moves towards us later in the day. The potential for some severe weather will exist as well depending on the instability. Actually there could be some early activity (hail?) somewhere in the region (north of I-70) and then when the front comes through in the evening (area wide).

So an active weather week is likely. You can see the effects on the temperatures later in the week off the GFS forecast. It MIGHT be overdoing the chilly stuff but the idea is certainly there. See the drop off between the 6th and the 7th.


Meanwhile our weather eyes are still watching Matthew packing winds close to 150 MPH. It’s been essentially maintaining this strength now for the last couple of days which is fascinating in itself in a year that these type of tropical systems have really struggled for the most part. Here is the information on the strength and the forecast positioning.

It’s important to note that despite the size of the storm…the area of the strongest winds…is rather small. Note the darkest wind size (darker red color). That small area is where the winds are over 75 MPH. It’s a small area at this point.

The big concerns for the next 2 days or so it the rain potential. We’ll never know how much will fall in western Haiti…but amounts may be from 15-25+” in some isolated areas. as I wrote about yesterday the mountains really exacerbate the rainfall totals.

For what it’s worth…here is the GFS forecast of rainfall through the next 5 days…there is a 40″ max in there somewhere!


GFS forecasted rain

Here is a close up of the Dominican Republic region


There are indications that, at least through the week, Matthew will remain off the coast of the USA. I’m sure later in the week>weekend, the outer banks of NC will be sweating the progress of the hurricane. With that said there could still be some significant wave and coastal erosion/flooding in NC later in the week even without a direct hit including the potential of short-lived tornadoes. Obviously things can change for the better or worse. More on that on Tuesday.

As far as the Bahamas go…this is the GFS forecast…the storm will be stronger than indicated by the lowest central pressure shown.

It would be packing winds of 115-135 MPH (maybe more) as it moves through the Bahamas. Again the area of devastating winds would be a smaller area…but the flooding would be devastating. It should be noted that the EURO model is a somewhat farther east…this would be important and it has handled the positioning of Matthew better than the GFS model it appears.

I’m going to be tied up in things tomorrow. So no blog…hopefully I’ll pick things up on Tuesday. Our feature photo is from Kathy Brant of a great sunset near Louisburg, KS.







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