Joe’s Weather Blog: More rain potential in KC + Matthew lurks for eastern Florida (WED-10/5)
Good morning…many of you saw some needed moisture last night. Rainfall amounts for many around KC were around 1/4″-3/4″ or so as an average. After the beautiful but dry weather over the past 10 days or so…it was welcome for sure. This morning we have a combination of fog and low clouds blocking out the sunshine for some…others are enjoying bright blue skies. More rain is on tap for the area…especially overnight into Thursday evening.
Rest of today: Clouds will hang around for a bit it appears for areas that have the cloud cover this morning. See the satellite picture below for that information. Eventually most areas will see sunshine this afternoon with highs in the 70s. There is also a chance of some scattered showers/storms in the area this afternoon.
Tonight: We should be dry early this evening but storm chances will increase later this evening and overnight into Thursday morning. Lows tonight near 60-65°. It would not shock me if a few of the storms tonight are a bit frisky with the potential of some hail especially towards the north of KC
Thursday: Variable clouds and there may be patches of rain around off and on during the day. The amount of the clouds and areas of rain will determine whether or not we get real unstable later in the day. The less sun/heat that build the less instability so that when a cold front comes through tomorrow night…there is less instability for it to work with. Obvious the the opposite is in play as well. More heat/sun = better instability which equates to more storms.
Let’s start with the overnight rain. The amounts were heavier across NW MO into NE KS. The storms more or less lost their punch as they arrived in the KC area proper, at least in terms of the rain amounts. Here are the doppler indicated amounts…I checked the network of rain gauges through the area and it appears we’re close to about 1/3″ on average in the KC metro.
The winds have dropped off to calm…and there was fog around at daybreak…which has turned into low clouds for many areas from KC westwards. Depending on when you read this blog…those clouds may or may not still be on the satellite image below. They should gradually fade and break as the later morning moves along. We’ll warm up in the afternoon.
The next change in the weather will be related to a cold front that will move through the region tomorrow night. That front should create more storms assuming we’re unstable later tomorrow afternoon. Before that however there could be new storms developing later tonight into Thursday early morning as the low level jet stream runs over a lifting surface boundary that will be near or north of KC. The exact area of that boundary though is tough to pinpoint because I’m not so sure the early model runs are depicting it correctly. The boundary, in reality, may be a bit farther north that what the morning model is showing. This would then translate into a farther north initiation of storms tonight. Perhaps more of a KC northwards scenario than southwards.
Thursday should be a day where we’re fighting some clouds and maybe a few showers during the day but overall we should be getting more unstable as the day moves along. A decent for October cold front will move into the Plains and eastwards towards KC later tomorrow. That front should light up with storms later tomorrow and those storms will move through our region. Depending on when they get here…again there could be at least some severe weather (hail/wind). The longer they take to get here the lower the severe weather risk for us and the instability really falls apart after 9PM Thursday night (sort of like last night).
We’ll cool off noticeably on Friday into Saturday morning (wondering about some isolated pockets of frost in far north MO). Overall though the weekend looks great with a return to seasonable conditions.
The focus now is on the Bahamas and Florida. Matthew crossed eastern Cuba last night and got battered a bit but has now returned out into the warm (very) bathwater of the southern Bahamas chain and is showing signs of reorganizing. The areas in RED in the graphic below are the Hurricane Warnings. Notice a lot of the SE FL coastline is under those warnings and north of there a Watch is in effect. Conditions there will really start to deteriorate tomorrow afternoon/night. Mandatory evacuations are going into effect this afternoon for some of the barrier islands of FL. The farther north you get…towards the Melbourne area…that is a lot of people.
The warm water temperatures in the Bahamas should go a long way to reinvigorate Matthew over the next 24 hours.
The graphic above shows the water temperatures from Monday morning there…the temperatures are in °C. As a rough guide…30°C is 86°F. Those upper 20s °C water temperatures are roughly 82-86° F sea water. That is warm!
So as Matthew starts tapping into that “fuel” it should get better organized.
and the morning satellite pics seem to show the convection wrapping around the center of the storm again indicating an organizing storm.
There are still conflicts in the exact future of Matthew. Some model data brings it onshore along the eastern FL coastline…while other model data has it 50+ miles off shore. The end result of one over the other is critical because of the wide variety of damage that can occur with a storm along the coast…or one that is farther offshore with the eastern coastline of FL in the “weaker” wind swath. Unfortunately the folks in FL have to be prepared either way…a 25-50 mile “jog” westward could be a HUGE deal. We’re talking multi billions of dollars versus something considerably less.
Think of all the mobile home parks near the coast…as well as the more permanent structures. How would they hold up to 100-120 MPH wind gusts…versus 40-60 mph wind gusts. That is what 50 miles means in the future track of Matthew.
It’s a rare track (up the FL coastline) but it has happened before…back in 1979 David did the east Florida coast track. Also hurricane Cleo back in 1964 did it as well. It can happen but it’s a pretty rare thing.
Matthew has already done a lot of damage in Haiti and eastern Cuba. The Bahamas are next.
Those mobile home communities in FL have me worried to no end.
I’ll have a lot to talk about on the weathercasts tomorrow and Friday for sure! Our feature photo comes from @AsSceneInKC.