Joe’s Weather Blog: No hard freezes ahead…for awhile (WED-10/19)

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Good morning…well we do have some clouds out there and maybe even a few light showers SE of KC…but aside from that and a fleeting chance on Thursday we’re sitting pretty with the fall weather around these parts as temperatures (after a cool Thursday) will start rebounding and another period of above average temperatures are likely to finish the month and potentially to start the next month.

Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds and seasonable with highs in the 60s

Tonight: Clearing and crisp with lows in the 40s.

Thursday: Variable clouds and cooler with highs around 60°. Maybe a few sprinkles out there.

Friday: More sunshine and milder with highs into the 60s

Discussion:

There really isn’t a lot to talk about for our local area over the next 5+ days…and really potentially the rest of the month. A series of weak fronts will be moving through  the Plains states…hopefully one in about a week will give us some rain…at least something.

In between fronts…we should see above average temperatures return to the area. The fronts will really not have any Canadian air to work with (at least this far south) so odds are most of the air behind the front will be of Pacific origin meaning that it really won’t be that cold to begin with and will quickly moderate.

I wanted to show you this by using the temperature anomalies of the 850 mb level. This is roughly about 5000′ up…and it gives you an idea of the various air masses being moved around the country/hemisphere. During this time of the year into the winter season…we really look more into the hemisphere situation looking for cold air sources to develop and then tracking where the developed air masses start to go. Let’s use the EURO model for this…and start by looking at the data for later today (off last night’s run).

ecm_t850_anom_noram_2

850 mb temperature anomalies…blue shades are colder than average…orange>red warmer

By looking at the map above…the bluer shading in the Rockies and the upper Midwest is the cooler air moving into the area tonight and Thursday. The temperature anomalies are in °C. So roughly every 5°C is about 10°F departure.

Now let’s fast forward to the end of the month (give or take)

ecm_t850_anom_noram_11

Same as the map above except for 10/28 @ 7PM

How can you NOT notice all the orange and some red coloring in the anomalies…the colder air masses are near/off the Pacific coast and also off Greenland. Notice as well a LACK of cold anomalies in Canada (mostly). There is a small pocket of cooler air around the Lakes region.

It’s important to remember that yes…you can still get some cooler than average air masses as quick changes…but the REAL cold weather is nowhere to be found.

I can’t show you the day 15 ensembles…off the EURO at least…but it’s a mild>warm look into early November as well.

I can show you the GFS day 16 panel though…again off the ensemble…and it too is rather warm for most of the US.

gefs_t850a_noram_65

This would be the same idea as the maps above except for 11/3. Look at the NW territories…tough to get sustained cold with that look in November

The overall pattern into the early part of November seems to want to favor storminess from the Gulf Of Alaska southwards…this tends to load up western Canada with milder Pacific air…and also allows the milder air to come through the Plains typically. Add in sunshine…no snow and downslope warming and generally you get mild to warm conditions.

In terms of actual temperatures…towards the end of the month we’re down to about 60° for highs and 40° for lows…

Now take a look at the GFS ensemble ideas for surface temperature anomalies…

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A little dip tomorrow…then we’re above average till further notice.

One will start to wonder about when we’ll actually see lows down to 32° or less (officially @ KCI). Our coldest so far has been 35°.

We’ll need to keep this chart around potentially…these are the dates of the latest 32° lows…the latest “1st” 32° or below low temperature is at the bottom…11/24/1931

capture

Latest “1st” 32° or below lows and the corresponding temperature

Makes this tweet from @NWS_KansasCity appropriate.

OK that’s it for today! Have a great Wednesday. Our feature photo today is from Kellie Lewis Cobern down in the Lake of the Ozarks…stunning!

Joe

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