Joe’s Weather Blog: Winter Forecast From NOAA (THU-10/20)

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Skies have rapidly cleared out in the region this afternoon and we should be in good shape for the rest of the afternoon into the weekend. Temperatures will again be on the cool side on Friday then warm up nicely this weekend into early next week. There was some rain this morning…however amounts in the KC area were typically under 1/10″ or so.

Forecast:

Tonight: Mostly clear and chilly with lows in the mid-upper 30s. Some frost is possible in the outlying areas

Friday: mostly sunny and cool with highs around 60°

Saturday and Sunday: Windy and milder on Saturday with highs in near 70° then warmer with less wind on Sunday and highs in the mid 70s. Mostly sunny skies this weekend…NICE!

Discussion:

Here at FOX 4 we typically don’t do our winter forecast until just before Thanksgiving. That should be the case again this year. A lot of folks are starting to ask what I’m thinking…and really after last winter’s 6″ of snow…some had even less than that, especially on the south side…odds are favoring MORE snow this winter.

So today let’s spend a little time talking about snow…first let’s look back to where we’ve been over the last 20+ winters…

capture

Fall/winter/spring snow totals by month. Data is for KCI

The winters of 2015/16…2011-12 really stick out for a lack of snow. For some reason I keep thinking that it was 2 winters in a row…but in reality we did have some snow during the winter of 2014-15…at least closer to average.

For the record I will be forecasting at least 10″ of snow this winter…there I said it!

NOAA this morning came out with their winter “prediction”. I put little stock in these forecasts…because as I’ve written numerous times before…I HATE the way they do these forecasts. It’s a more probabilistic forecast method…but to me it’s still very confusing. It’s not a simple…above or below average forecast (temps./precip). There are nuances to their graphics.

Let me show you what I mean…here is their winter forecast regarding temperatures…

For the KC area…it’s basically 50/50…either warmer or colder. No help whatsoever in my opinion. The highest chances of warmth is down towards SW TX and SE NM. The better chances of cold are in the far northern Plains states. Even there it’s a greater than 40% chance of coldness…again I just hate this way of doing things…

Now in terms of precipitation (rain/snow)…

Highest risk of dryness is across the deep south…higher risks of wetness for the northern Rockies and also into the Lakes region. Again we’re 50/50 of either dry/wet or average. Thanks.

I’m not sure what this information provides aside from basically shrugging your shoulders ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

The main key to their forecasts this winter is La Nina…which is trying to turn into something in the Equatorial Pacific waters.

ncep_cfsv2_28_t2anom_globe

La Nina is the cooling of waters in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. It’s the opposite of El Nino

Anyway…now you know.

Our feature photo comes from Vicki Phillips of a pretty sunrise from this morning!

Joe

 

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