Joe’s Weather Blog: Ghoulishly warm forecast (THU-10/27)

Good afternoon…another great fall day in the KC region. It’s tough to imagine that a day with highs in the 60s (today) will actually be the “cool” day compared to what’s ahead over the next 4 days or so. 80s are on tap. Records will be monitored but are going to be tough to attain. Tomorrow’s record high is 84°. We’ll be within shouting distance but the official reporting station for KC (up at KCI) may fall just short. Regardless of that though…the warmth will bring wind and that will be a big talking point over the next several days.

Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies and pleasant for late October. Lows in the 40s

Friday: Windy and warm with highs 80-85°. Winds will be SW at 20-35 MPH

Saturday: Windy and warm again with highs in the 80s. Winds SW at 20-40 MPH

Sunday: Not as warm but still very pleasant for late October. Highs closer to 70°. NE winds of 10-20 MPH.

Discussion:

Very simply there is no real cold air to tap into to chill our temperatures down substantially. There isn’t much in the way of cold weather in central or western Canada…as a result when cold fronts come through the Plains states…they have very little punch to them.  Yesterday’s front is a case in point.

Let’s start today by going up into central and western Canada and checking in with their mid-day temperature anomalies…notice ALL the RED coloring. That’s warmer than average temperatures showing up.

gfs_t2m_a_f_wcan_2

Mid day temperature anomalies

There are two areas of “chillier” weather..one north of Hudson’s Bay in eastern Canada and the other SE of Alaska. Overall though these are small areas of “chill” compared to the big picture of warmth.

Expanding the picture towards the North America continent…there is some cold weather back east…as a matter of fact it’s snowing now in parts of the NE part of the country towards the new England area.

gfs_t2m_a_f_noram2_2

Same as above with a broader view…more blue in eastern Canada and the Lakes region

Here is the 12PM (1PM EDT) map…notice the *** symbols showing up…that’s snow. 2 ** are light snow…3 are moderate snow…4 are heavy snow. the #’s next to the ** is the visibility

So it can get cold enough this early for snow…but we just can’t get that cold air to drain our way…and that really won’t change over the next 5-7 days or so. Yes to some cold fronts…but no to any real Canadian air masses to drop south into the central Plains states.

This was the scene last night up in the northern reaches of lower Michigan. Just enough for a baby snowman

So yes…seasons are changing…but the overall situation for awhile is warmth in the KC region for sure. Take a look at the forecast anomalies on a few selected days…FRI/SAT/MON for example

gfs_t2m_a_f_mc_7

Friday anomalies at 7PM

gfs_t2m_a_f_mc_11

Saturday anomalies at 7PM…notice up in the northern Plains states…NOT as warm…but not cold either…that moves in on Sunday

gfs_t2m_a_f_mc_19

Halloween is a TREAT! and shorts weather!

Goodness knows…Halloween weather around these parts can go all over the place…yes it’s even snowed on Halloween before. Here is a neat graphic from Climate Central with some weather information regarding Halloweens in the past.

That 87° in 1950 is going to be tough to beat. Just for the heck of it…I loaded up the weather map from 1950 on Halloween to see how things compare to the forecast

capture

10/31/1950!

Now take a loo at the forecast map for Monday the 31st…

9khwbg_conus

Note the similarities in the Plains. The surface low is closer to us compared to in 1950 and the HIGH in the NE part of the country is farther along this year compared to 1950

Interestingly enough…I even looked at the 850 mb temps on that day…we were around a +20C or 68°F at about 5000 feet above the ground. We’re going to be in roughly the same vicinity again on Monday. Now that record of 87° was set in Downtown KC…and because KCI is outside the downtown area…it may be tough to duplicate…but right now, assuming enough sun and wind…near 85° temperatures are possible in my opinion IF we have enough sunshine…and that is questionable right now…there may be a lot of cloud cover in the region for part of the day.

Wow…I can’t believe I went back to 1950 to dig that information up!

The bottom line is warmth for awhile…

Have a great Thursday…oh an finally thanks to the 3rd graders at William Southern Elementary School. Talked to them yesterday!

 

Our fall foliage picture comes from Janette Marie Rauber from Atchison, KS

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