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Joe’s Weather Blog: My 1st frost this season (WED-11/9)

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Good morning. A bright and chilly start today with more areas of frost out there this morning compared to other mornings this fall. I had my 1st frost of the season this morning. Others are getting some too compared to previous cold mornings. I suspect there may be more tomorrow morning…then widespread frost and or a light freeze for many areas on Saturday morning.

Forecast:

Today: Sunny and pleasant with highs around 60°

Tonight: Clear and chilly with lows in the 30s

Thursday: Mostly sunny and milder with highs approaching 70°

Friday: Turning somewhat cooler again with highs near 60°

Discussion:

As I’ve blogged about for about a week now…it’s getting easier and easier, as the nights get longer, to get more and more frost out there. This morning is the perfect example of that. Lows dropped to around 37° at KCI (officially for KC). I suspect we’ll be colder on Saturday morning. As these large areas of high pressure build into the area…the longer nights and the dry air allow lows to tank.

By the same token this dry air can be warmed rather efficiently. So when the sun is working hard, despite a lower sun angle as we get closer to the winter solstice, we can still warm up a but. Average highs now are between 55-58° and we should be near to above average for awhile it seems. Average lows are in the mid 30s…so that’s part of why it get’s somewhat easier to tank overnight.

With ALL that said though…there are still no real threats of any Canadian air becoming a factor in our weather pattern anytime soon. What I mean by that is the “pattern flip” that some have said is on the way. I just am not seeing that right now. I’m seeing though a slow ratcheting down of temperatures with an occasional warm day and an occasional chilly day in the next 10-15 days or so. Can there be a day or two of cold…absolutely (not anytime though in the next 7+ days). Will we see our 1st freeze? Saturday AM certainly has that potential in many areas. It would be a light freeze though.

The big picture though…while seasonably cooler weather takes hold over the next couple of weeks…and the nights gradually get colder…again isn’t terrible. High temperatures may not be in the 70s again, aside from perhaps a brief spike for a day ahead of some sort of cold front, but by the same token they won’t be in the 40s for more than a day or so. Data this morning…off the GFS and the EURO ensembles seems to point in that direction. Yes cooler…but not overly cold.

kmci_2016110906_min_max_16

GFS Ensembles for the next 15 days…overall still rather reasonable with several VERY nice days mixed in there.

kmci_2016110900_eps_min_max_15

Same as above except from the EURO Ensembles

Oh and it’s going to be mostly dry for quite some time as well…with no organized storms threatening for awhile it appears. Take a look a the EURO forecasted precipitation anomalies for the next 10 days. That’s a LOT of dry weather for many areas…and that little area across the upper Midwest is mostly coming about on the last day or two and should be taken with a grain of salt at this point.

ecmwf_qpf_anom_conus2_41

I think I have more golfing weather to enjoy next week!

Our feature photo comes from Carol Prettyman of Sibley, MO. it was shot by Olivia Coatney

Have a great day!

Joe

 

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