Joe’s Weather Blog: Mild winds + a bit of rain (SUN-11/27)

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The 6th warmest November continues for KC as temperatures today are again nicely above average for late November. The 30 mph wind gusts from the south are helping us to stay warm and those winds tonight will keep the temperatures from dropping much, if at all. Meanwhile radar is dotted with some shower activity that has barely moistened the ground locally, although there are some better downpours and fast moving showers developing as I type this

Forecast:

Tonight: Clouds with occasional showers into Midnight…then cloudy and mild. Lows steady in the 50s

Monday: Cloudy AM then clearing skies. Breezy and mild with highs 60-65°

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Not as mild but still pleasant for late November with highs in the mid 50s

Discussion:

Let’s start today with a weather poll. Since earlier in the week we did our winter forecast I thought I’d get your opinion about the snow this coming winter season.

Meanwhile we don’t have to worry about snow anytime in the near future…at least the next 7-10 days I think. While we will be getting colder the pattern into NEXT weekend is a dry one for the region. I saw this as a storm moves through the Plains states today…but its effects on our region are not really that dramatic except for the wind situation. Here is a look at radar.

The best rains are going towards the N of the KC area. we’re going to be left with some table scraps it appears and the amounts locally should be under 1/4″…perhaps, in some cases, by a large margin.  aAreas towards N MO and NE KS have a better chance of seeing more than that. There is more rain developing towards Emporia that should move through later today and early this evening

By looking at the regional radar you can tell where the heart of the storm is today…up towards NE.

The afternoon weather map shows our storm system in western NE.

2016112719_metars_ict

The storm will continue to move towards the NE. Note the dry line (it’s a weak one) denoted by the orange line. The dew points (in green) behind that line are crashing indicating dry surface air. Ahead of the dry line dew points are well into the 50s. There is the risk of some thunderstorm activity developing out in central KS today. It would be flying towards the NE though with the winds aloft.

Closer to the ground the winds are pretty decent today.

We’ve seen gusts to 30 MPH or so today. The clouds and the showers moving through are keeping winds from gusting much more than that since the air closest to the ground is stable. The winds above the ground though are blowing at over 60 MPH! A little bumpy up there.

Tomorrow the storm will be into the upper Midwest. The cold air though really won’t be getting to us for a couple of more days. As a result, assuming we see sunshine, the air around us will be mild still and with the sunshine helping should get even warmer in the afternoon. 60s are very doable for Monday. The record high is 71° in 1998. Don’t think we can get there.

Tuesday the air will be cooling down a bit…but it will be Wednesday when the colder air spills down from the northern Plains again…it should linger into next weekend.

Really it will mainly be a return to more seasonable temperatures…so we’ll start December on a colder note. At this point though there are no strong systems that can interact with that cold air in play. So some colder mornings (20s) and cool afternoons are on tap (40s).

There are some pretty interesting things showing up in the longer range that I’m watching. We mentioned yesterday that over the next 10 days a rather cold air mass will be building in western Canada into AK. It’s still showing up today…so I’m more and more convinced that will happen

gfs_t2m_a_f_wcan_41

Temperature anomalies for 12/7, Those purple colors represent bitterly cold air (more so than typical…upwards of 40-50° below average)

The question is though will there be anything to drive that cold air into the central US. The GFS says yes…and does it with a nice blizzard  in the area as well around the 8th.

I’m not sure about that play out.

The EURO on the other hand…has the cold air up there but it never really gets it to us except for some oozing cold air. We don’t get a true cold air dump…and even that gets routed quickly away by around the 11th or so as downsloping winds eat away at the cold air.

So something is clearly likely to happen in the Plains states towards that period. Will it be a bitterly cold shot of air…or something that is modifying greatly because of a lack of snow cover right now in the Plains. At this point I lean towards the latter solution. It would be rather unusual for us to have this type of cold air mass NOT come towards the KC region at some point. I’m just not seeing the core of that air mass coming at us at this point.

Our feature photo is from Brenda Crocker…on the 1st day of Spring 2016!

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Joe

 

 

 

 

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