Joe’s Weather Blog: Sneaky weekend system + rumors of snow (WED-11/30)

15192537_1208940162497717_117983842243948968_n

Well it won’t be the warmest November in KC weather history but it will be in the top 5. Through yesterday we were at #3 overall from 11/1-11/29 and today’s chill won’t help us go higher. Still though a fabulous month overall for KC. It’s been a dry month as well…23rd driest in KC weather history going back to the late 1880s. The forecast is more typical for early December over the next few days…but there will still be some above average highs starting out the new month.

Forecast:

Tonight: variable clouds and chilly with lows in the mid 20s

Thursday: Mostly sunny and seasonable with highs in the mid 40s

Friday: Partly cloudy and seasonable with highs in the 45-50° range.

Discussion:

Yesterday  I wrote extensively about how those of us interested in weather should NOT grab onto any one model from many days out (5+). It’s an important reminder when models start flipping and  flopping (typically in relation to snow) during this time of the year. Well, not surprisingly the models are flipping and flopping with regards to snow for the middle of next week.

Before we get there though there is a sneaky chance of something light the weekend. A wet storm will be taking shape down in the southern Plains states into Texas as a cut-off low meanders through northern old Mexico and gradually moves into Texas early next week. It’s actually a bit more complicated than that. Take a look at the western watern vapor loop showing the moisture in the atmosphere…

Notice the faster movement to that moisture off the coast of CA. That is an area of stronger jet stream winds. What’s going to happen is 2 separate waves are going to split apart. One will eventually break off and go towards Mexico (the faster jet stream wind region)…another will piece…some sort of combination of what’s left with the jet stream piece and that little area of rotation near British Columbia will sort of merge in the Rockies and gradually move into the Plains later Saturday night into Sunday AM (it’s complicated I know)

This 2nd piece will provide some lift to a slowly saturating atmosphere that will be seasonably chilly on Saturday above us and help t potentially create some VERY light precip Saturday night or early Sunday that will be streaking through the area, especially on the south side of the metro. I can’t rule out a few areas of rain or possibly some mixed precip showers with this weak set-up. It will be fighting some dry air…so I can’t imagine it amounts to a lot…something to watch though.

Then the Mexico upper low will weaken and start to lift out early next week towards the MO bootheel. It’s actually a favorable track for us to see snow BUT on Sunday and Monday warmer air will be coming northwards so by the time the low gets towards the bootheel there is no cold air for the storm to tap into to create any snow on Monday or Tuesday.

As all this is happening another strong system which will be connected to the delivery of some REAL cold air into the Midwest will be dropping into the Rockies. This is the system that the models have been flipping and flopping around with in terms of snow production Yesterday the EURO model had a snowstorm here…last night it took it away…today it brought it back (somewhat). The GFS has had it…lost it…and keeps it lost. It seems as if the Canadian model has a snowstorm every day for the next year or so so I don’t typically rely on it that much (but it does have a significant snow here later on the 7th).

Yesterday I urged extreme caution with regards to hugging any one model or making on air proclamations about what may or may not happen. The truth of the matter is we just don’t know. I sort of like the set up for the middle of next week…I absolutely feel the cold air will be realized…the snow aspect though frankly remains to be seen. I do get a bit nervous when these things get wrapped up into the actual delivery of arctic originated air into the Plains. Strange things can happen when this occurs in terms of snow being more than one initially thinks.

Here is a tweet that I just sent out…

 

The reason for the different outcomes is the progress of a developing upper level low…the GFS takes this way into the northern Plains…while the EURO us considerably farther south today. Here are the 2 maps for what’s happening at about 18,000′ or so up for 7AM next Wednesday.

gfs_z500a_noram_29

GFS model…notice the upper level low towards SE MT.

Now the EURO…

ecm_z500_anom_conus_8

EURO model shows this farther south. That piece up towards southern Canada is inconsequential

Again it’s just too early to really get into this…everything is still on the table.

What I can more confidently say though is that it’s going to get really cold here for a few days. Whether it be Wednesday or Thursday into the end of next week…bitterly cold air is on tap…especially considering where we’ve been so far this fall. That football game on Thursday night may be NASTY cold…with wind and temperatures near 20° or so. Near 0° wind chills may be an issue during the game.

The worst of the cold though may only be about 48 hours or so before we start moderating a bit heading into next weekend.

So snow lovers…hang tough…there are many more ups and downs ahead. The good news is that, like I mentioned yesterday, you can see how it can get cold and snowy at this this winter…and that’s something that never really happened last winter.

Our feature photo is from Todd A Surprise..a nice winter scene!

15192537_1208940162497717_117983842243948968_n

Joe

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s