Joe’s Weather Blog: Roller coaster temperatures has us a bit queasy through the 20th (TUE-12/6)

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Good morning…the 1st cold front swept through the area overnight. Did you notice the winds pick up around 4-5AM. that was the front with gusts to about 30 MPH rolling through. Yesterday we made it into the lower 50s…today we’ll be around 40° or so…which is about seasonable. Tomorrow the arctic air comes through the area…and it will last a few days before we moderate over the weekend. We’ll talk snow in the discussion part of the blog. Also I’m posting some video from Montreal, Canada taken yesterday of what happens when roads get icy. I’m sure you can imagine the outcomes.

Forecast: (10PM update)

Tonight: Increasing clouds with lows 25-30° Temperatures may actually be rather steady after the clouds thicken up enough.

Wednesday: (updated at 10PM) Light snow/flurries moving through after AM rush particularly SW of the metro. Many will only get flurries. Accumulations will be minor overall…probably in the dusting>1″ range…if even that much and confined to areas south of I-70 it appears. The data on Tuesday night is rather feeble with the snow amounts and looking at the upper air sounding from Topeka on Tuesday evening shows a LOT of dry air below 10,000′ that will need to be overcome for us to get much of anything. The wave is also rather weak and poor looking so I’m not very hopeful for much.


Highs should be around 32°. There may well be road issues even with the low snow amounts so watch for changeable road conditions.

Thursday: Sunny/windy/cold with highs 20-25°. Wind chills will be around 0°. Forecast for the game is clear and bitterly cold with temperatures dropping into the teens during the game.

Discussion:

Let’s start with this video of slick roads in Canada from either yesterday or the day before I think. It was taken in Montreal…and IF you ALSO load up the Peanuts Christmas skating song…it’s weirdly perfect while watching the video. That video went viral and has already been watched 17 million times! More people have watched that video in the last day than watch most football games…and the number will keep going up! Amazing.

So that’s what it’s like to have slick roads that are slightly downhill. Hopefully that won’t be the case here tomorrow.

The morning surface map, showing the temperatures in RED show chilly air moving through the Plains again. Yesterday KCI hit 52° which was nice and is the last time we’ll be that mild for awhile it seems.

 

Really this was just a seasonably strong front that is bringing us back to average for the day.

More cold air is across the border and will be moving southwards today and tonight. It really won’t get here till later tomorrow into tomorrow evening though. Notice the sub-zero temperatures across the border

 

Note the change over the past 24 hours comparing 7AM today>yesterday.

rtma_tmp2m_24hr_conus

24 hour change in temperatures this morning…you can see the changes through the northern Rockies/northern Plains states

So the theme of the forecast for the rest of the week is cold weather.

Now about that snow…the morning NAM model has come out with a thin(!) stripe of accumulating snow around the KC metro. In reality these bands may set up north or south of KC…or right on top of us as the model portrays. We really won’t know for sure till tomorrow AM. What I’m showing you next is the total precipitation the bands generates.

nam_total_precip_kc_13

You can see 2 bands of accumulating snow…while many will probably get net to nothing. Again these banded locations may see a solid dusting>2″ of snow

It appears the timing of the accumulating snow is right after AM rush…so IF we’re going to have some road issues it would be towards the later AM and PM hours. We’ve seen numerous occasions that 1″ of snow creates a mess on the area roads…just be aware of this potential for tomorrow and take it slow and easy IF you run into changeable conditions.

From there it’s just cold afterwards. We’ll probably drop to around 10° by Friday AM…

We recover over the weekend…potentially back into the 40s as we start going through the roller-coaster of temperature changes. It’s NOT out of the question that we pop into the 50s next week…ahead of another cold shot of air coming down through the Plains.

As a matter of fact, let’s try and track these air masses going up to about 5,000′ or so. Here are 4 maps showing the temperatures in relation to average. You can see how we alternate between cold…seasonable…mild…cold again over the next 10 days. Click though the gallery to see these changes coming

With that said the models will NOT handle these features well (at least the timing). When air masses are battling each other…there are going to be some rather large errors. Again to reiterate a theme though from the last couple of weeks..this December is going to be vastly different locally and nationwide compared to the December that really wasn’t last year.

It’s amazing to me though that with all this going on there is a struggle to get a big whopper of a storm in the Plains but so far nothing is really showing up. It’s NOT exactly the snowiest of patterns next week at this point. There will be lots of volatility though in timing the air masses and perhaps whether or not there could be some sort of storm develop along the front of some of these cold air pushes…

That’s it for today…again remember to take it slow tomorrow if need be on the roads. Our feature photo comes from Crystal Bromley in Richmond, MO. It was shot yesterday morning in the fog/frost.

15267811_1666176133674074_2694758280076902661_n

 

Joe

 

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