Joe’s Weather Blog: Wasted cold air masses yield little snow (so far) (SUN-12/11)

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My goodness…2 weeks from today it’s Christmas Day. There is another musical selection that you can listen too while reading the blog. The music is in the discussion part of the blog…so hit play and continue reading from there. We’re sort of in the tail end of a 4 hour drizzle event. There is some additional shower activity off towards the NW of KC though…so we may not be done with some rain. There could even be a few wet snow flakes across far N MO as well. Temperatures locally are well above freezing and will remain so into early this evening.

Forecast:

Tonight: Clearing skies and turning colder again with lows near 20°

Monday: A chilly start then a more seasonable finish with highs around 40°

Tuesday: Back into the cold air again with highs only in the 20s

Discussion:

So we’ll start out with a nice Christmas song by the one and only…The Boss…Bruce Springsteen.

So with that music in the background…lets talk weather.

Frankly this weather is actually a bit boring to me…sure it was interesting to see temperatures go up overnight into this morning…and now a cold front sliding in from the NW is dropping the temperatures on the north side for now. On the south side though temperatures are closer to the upper 40s.

capture

1PM Surface map…the front is indicated by the changing wind directions…which is roughly along the I-35 corridor.

Here is a look at a decoder of the map above. I use these types of maps often…mostly in relation to temperatures but it may be helpful down the road for you…I’ll try and remember to include this more often.

 

So with that image above…take a look at some of the colder air poised to the NW of here…I’ve only included the temperatures and winds in this next graphic for simplicity sake.

capture

Single digit temperatures up in the northern Dakotas

So there is a lot of cold air…enhanced by a growing snow field up there…we don’t tap that air tomorrow, we will tap some of it though Tuesday into Thursday.

 

38% of the country is under a blanket of at least some snow…that is considerably more than the 13% at this time last year. So this is a different December though the 1st part of the month.

Today it’s snowing pretty good across the Great Lakes region. Heavy snow is hitting southern MI as I type this up.

Via Penn State

Additional snows of up to 4-6″ are expected in the darker green contours

capture

Additional snow through Noon Monday

So all this cold weather…but KC continues to suffer or benefit (depending on your perspective) from a lack of snow of any consequence.

For snow lovers..aside from some small opportunities of little dusting to 1″ type things…I just am not feeling the love for anything right now of something more meaningful. There is a weak system next weekend that will be coming in with another rather big plunge of Arctic air…that could yield something…but odds of more than 2″ is pretty slim right now unless there are some big changes with the set-up. There will also be a bunch of mid level moisture around this week…WED in particular that may create some bands of light snow (dusting type stuff)…maybe?

So in reality all these shots of cold air…are being wasted right now…which leads to the heart of the holiday season in about 2 weeks…and right now I’m not feeling the love for a White Christmas in KC. I’ll be talking about this more tonight on FOX 4 News at 9/10 but I’m getting the feeling when this cold weather runs it’s course in about 7-10 days…we may be setting up for a return to a more moderate temperature regime heading towards the holiday…that won’t be good for snow lovers…or will it?

Here’s the thing…it really depends. There is a path…not a great one…but a path where the could be an establishing storm track close by. The west will be trending colder…the east trending milder…so something can happen in between…BUT it would take something special to make that happen…because on the front end of whatever happens…odds are we’d see rain because of the warm air ahead of whatever is heading this way. we’d have to rely on a backside changeover to get a White Christmas in KC…good luck with that.

Our feature photo today comes from Darla Tobin Blakes of a “cotton candy” sunrise

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Joe

 

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