Joe’s Weather Blog: Another arctic invasion + some snow (WED-12/14)

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Not exactly a Chamber of Commerce day out there as clouds and cold temperatures will keep temperatures in check for the day today. The clouds though may help out the cause tonight since they’ll be acting like a blanket and keeping what little heat we built up today in…and not allowing it to radiate back out. With that said there are a few speed-bumps we have to get over on Friday and Saturday and then the cold weather is really the overwhelming issue into early next week.

Forecast: 

Tonight: Cloudy skies…although we may thin out the clouds towards tomorrow AM. Temperatures are going to be varied…in N MO it will drop into the single digits while in town we may stay somewhere in the teens.

Thursday: Variable clouds and cold with highs only in the 20s

Friday: Cloudy skies…there is a small chance of some freezing mist developing…overall though probably dry and cold with highs somewhere in the mid 30s+. IF anything were to fall in the afternoon it may just be drizzle (liquid). I think the roads will be OK…but it does bear watching.

Saturday: Turning colder from daybreak into the afternoon. We may start in the 20s but we’ll finish the afternoon closer to 12 around sunset. Wind chills will drop below 0° in the afternoon. The potential for some light snow will develop in the afternoon. Accumulations look minor (under 1″) and odds are the snow will blow around. The cold is the main concern

Sunday: Near 0° in the morning and around 15° in the afternoon with light winds and sunshine. Wind chills for tailgaters will be sub-zero.

Discussion:

Remember a couple of days ago I wrote about how cloud cover would go a long ways in determining the overnight lows…well here we are trying to figure out IF the clouds that are moving from west to east now…will hang around long enough tonight to keep temperatures from free-falling. Here is the afternoon picture….

Notice N MO seeing sunshine, mainly near and north of 36 highway…

Now the clouds out in KS are moving this way. Assuming they continue to hold together…temperatures tonight may not get as cold as what the models suggest (around 7°). It’s the main reason why we may stay somewhere in the teens. IF those clouds clear out overnight…we will tank…but lets go with them hanging around for awhile.

The latest surface map shows the cold air (temperatures in RED) in abundance…and notice as well the winds towards the I-80 corridor. Increasing in speed from the NW. That is another push of cold air dropping our way…so tomorrow we’ll be around 25° again.

That push of cold air will drop down towards the Ozarks and then retreat beginning tomorrow night.

That leaves Friday sort of in no mans land. The coldest air will be in full retreat above us…but at the surface the cold air will be tougher to get rid of. Moisture return into cold surface air is always a concern when we’re trying to get one air mass and replace (albeit ever so briefly) with a less cold air mass (Friday night). The moisture is sitting down there ready to come up.

Notice it along and south of the I-44 corridor in the above picture. South winds above us will bring that moisture rapidly northwards beginning Thursday night. An issue though is when that moisture streams into a cold dense air mass. There are certainly times in the past where this scenario creates all sorts of freezing drizzle. Something though tells me that by the time this process can fully get going we may be a few degrees above freezing (in the afternoon). This would prevent any real issues from developing as far as the roads go. Now should things happen a bit earlier…let’s say towards daybreak…when we’re colder then we could have an issue or two on the roads. It’s worth watching at this point.

Temperatures may actually warm up a few more degrees into Friday evening before the arctic air moves in early Saturday. I think that whatever the high temperature is at 12AM Saturday…will be the high for the day essentially as once the colder air comes in before daybreak…we’ll be dropping through the daytime hours. Eventually towards sunset..we should be closer to 10°…and with winds of 15-25 mph…the wind chill factors will be closer to -5°! Attention NW MO State folks going to the game out at Children’s Mercy Park!

Snow chances:

I’m not worried about that aspect on Friday to any significant degree.

Saturday though is a bit dicier with varied model solutions ranging from essentially nothing to some areas getting close to 1-2″ (favored south side of region). As the cold air pours in…and as a weak and shearing wave comes out from the Plains…snow should spread into the Metro and south areas towards the afternoon. The snow will be light…and should immediately stick. It also will blow around a LOT. This means that some of you may notice about an inch in the front yard…while in the backyard it’s a glorified dusting. The end result is that I’m NOT expecting much more than 1″ of snow (sort of like the last snow we had) although it will be blowing around a lot since the snow will be light and fluffy in the cold air. I doubt most of you will be shoveling. Although a lot of you may be sweeping! Again this WILL NOT be a big snowstorm.

Beyond that it’s just cold on Sunday (coldest of the season) with lows 0-5° likely. Sunday highs will be in the teens.

Monday is cold as well.

We moderate a bit (above freezing) on Tuesday

Beyond that there will be a series of ups and downs into Christmas but the trends after Christmas seem to be a return to a milder weather regime.

So it goes…for snow lovers…we are in the process of totally wasting a cold 3 weeks of December…and I don’t like the trends into early January at least.

I’d be surprised IF I don’t update my winter forecast…I got the cold weather I needed but I couldn’t get a well timed storm system to get my snow totals going.

Our feature photo is of one of the 3 supermoons in 2016. Obviously this was the last one of the year. It wasn’t as close as the previous one though. Thanks @booboo79a for sending it in!

czo2vpiuqaeubeg

Joe

 

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