Joe’s Weather Blog: Not a lot of winter for awhile (FRI-12/23)

Not too bad out there today as skies are in the process of clearing out for some areas…and the temperatures have responded nicely. Some, especially from KC westwards may make a run towards 50° before the afternoon is over with. Not too shabby since we started the day before daybreak with some snow and sleet in spots.

Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies with frost. Lows 25-30°

Saturday: Mixed clouds and sunshine and highs well into the 40s

Saturday night: Temperatures may drop for a bit in the evening but then level out and warm up towards daybreak on Sunday. Clouds will increase.

Sunday (Christmas): Cloudy and windy. Showers are likely in the AM then drier for a bit near and after lunch. The rain chances (won’t last long) go back up between 3-6PM. Highs 60-65°. Strong south winds of 30-45+ MPH during the day. Another note IF we get more sunshine…IF we get warmer…IF we get even stronger winds…there could be a small period of time when we may see some borderline severe storms move through between 3-6PM. The storms will be flying towards the NNE and NE at close to 60 MPH! Whatever rains move through won’t last for too long.

Discussion:

Everything seems to be coming along nicely in terms of the weekend trends. There will be 2 opportunities for rain it appears on Christmas. Before 10AM or so…then between 3-6PM. The 2nd chance may have some marginal near severe winds blowing through with it.

The storm itself is swinging southwards off the west coast of the US as I type this. You can see it rather nicely in the water vapor images.

It will in time consolidate in the Rockies and swing into the northern Plains region over the weekend. You can sort of get a sense of this by looking up at around 18,000 feet (500 mb pressure level) and see the “U” dip in the jet stream close off up towards ND.

For us to have a surprise White Christmas locally…that storm would have to come towards the I-44 corridor. Wouldn’t that be fascinating IF it did…don’t worry…it won’t. We’re guaranteed a brown Christmas and at times a wet Christmas in the KC region.

The storm will also develop towards the surface as Saturday night evolves…and then by Sunday it will be a fully mature storm creating blizzard conditions in the NW Plains states and towards the US/Canadian border. The NAM model (like the above animation) points this out nicely.

The more solid RED line is the approximate rain/snow transition area. Notice how things ramp up locally on Sunday as we have some fast showers in the AM…then are waiting for the line of showers/storms after 21Z (3PM).

As I mentioned yesterday the winds above us will be cranking for this time frame. Let’s go just above the surface to about 2-3000′ or so…and observe the model forecast winds.

eta48hr_925_wnd

6AM Sunday…winds are in knots…every 10 knots is about 11.5 MPH

eta54hr_925_wnd

Noon Sunday

eta60hr_925_wnd

6PM…front coming towards us by then

Meanwhile at the surface via windyty.com…

That’s a LOT of air moving around…

The front itself will be moving into that fast moving wind field towards the evening. Ahead of the actual front…a small and skinny line of showers with some convection is going to develop. It’s possible that NOT all areas get the rain from this line as it races through the area. Again the timing appears to be in the 3-6PM period.

For tailgaters this will impact you. The winds will also be enough to have stuff flying all over the place and even after the passes through before the game starts…the winds will be an issue during the game itself although they won’t be gusting as much as beforehand…so there could be an impact on the kicking game on Sunday night.

Temperatures immediately behind the front don’t look too terrible for late December. Here is a snapshot model forecast for temperatures at 6PM

nam_t2m_mc_21

We’re still around 60° as the storms should be moving away from the KC Metro

Now by 9PM…

nam_t2m_mc_22

9PM temperatures…still around 50°

We will be in the 40s by the end of the game…if not close to 40° with SW winds of 20-30 mph gusts.

So Sunday is busy weather wise for Santa.

Beyond…not a lot going on for the last week of the year…another cold front will come in sometime next Thursday and impact us for about 36 hours or so but we could be setting up for a milder New Years if things go according to early plan.

Ouor feature photo was sent in by Jan Holmes…this is Fee…there is a cat in the shade (Wickham)

15590071_1524981904181959_593737172707633800_n

I’ll be updating things over the weekend and also doing some FB Lives in between shows. This is my FB page to “LIKE” so that you can participate. I’m getting better and better with this and try and answer lots of your questions…

Merry Christmas and I’ll see yo over the weekend!

Joe

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