Joe’s Weather Blog: We’re in a Christmas fog (SAT-12/24)

On Christmas eve…it’s gray and cold out there and it’s going to mainly stay that way for the rest of the day it appears. That means temperatures will not change much for the rest of the afternoon. Some are in the mid 30s…others in the low 40s and I expect just a few extra degrees today. The areas that had sunshine this morning, except for northern MO are “stuck in the muck” right now as the satellite picture below will illustrate.

Forecast:

Tonight: Cloudy skies with some scattered showers possible towards early in the morning. Steady to slowly rising temperatures towards daybreak. When you wake up on Christmas morning it should be closer to 45° with 50s a few counties south of the I-70 corridor. SE winds for santa’s arrival overnight…not too strong though.

Christmas Day: No changes needed overall in the previous forecast. A bit of a trend in the model data though to delay the rains about 1-2 hours…putting the rains very near by n the MO side by kickoff. Windy with gusts to 45 MPH possible…and warm as well with highs 60-65° and lots of clouds. Rain chances will be with us near and after daybreak…then with the line of showers and storms from 4-7PM or so as it moves from the west to the east across the state line region. There is still the chance of some 50+ mph winds with these cells as they try to tap some of the stronger winds just above the surface.

Monday: Mostly sunny and pleasant for late December with highs 45-50°

Discussion:

Well this isn’t encouraging for widespread sunshine today…

 

With the exception of northern MO enjoying some sunshine…it’s miserable out there.

That’s a lot of gray that probably isn’t going to break up for the rest of the afternoon.

In the following map…the temperatures are in RED…this is from the noon surface map…

I thought we’d see enough breaks in the low clouds to allow the sun to help us out…if anything the opposite happened…the breaks got filled in this morning and now we’re stuck with what you see outside for the rest of the day it appears.

Grrrr…

As far as Christmas Day goes…again as I mentioned earlier about the only noteworthy change is about a 1-2 hour slowdown in the arrival of the PM activity. This means that something for sure should be coming through for tailgating…and it’s not out of the question that between 7-8PM something is nearby in terms of rain. I’m still hopeful it will be dry during the game but there isn’t a lot of room left for anymore slow downs in the line of rain/storms that may be coming through the area.

This also means that temperatures will stay mostly mild through most, if not the whole game…50°+ it appears.

So here is a look at the forecast radar for 3 hours…from 3-6PM Christmas night.

hires_ref_kc_34

3PM…cells developing out west…

hires_ref_kc_35

4PM

hires_ref_kc_36

5PM

hires_ref_kc_37

6PM…bulk of activity right on the State Line area

As long as this happens as played out…we’re OK for the game…but again any little slowdown and it could rain in the 1st quarter…obviously be ready just in case.

Temperature wise though…it still appears very mild and while we won’t be a record high levels…this will be one of the warmest Christmas Days in KC weather history.

So it will be mild regardless of all this…take a look at the forecast temperatures via the hi-res NAM model.

hires_t2m_kc_25

6AM Christmas temperatutres

hires_t2m_kc_31

Noon temperatures

Finally 6PM temperatures…

hires_t2m_kc_37

So there’s that…

I don’t really want to get into the longer range at this point aside from the fact that the cold air is never going to be that far away from the central Plains. There is going to be a good col air mass settling into Canada…and every so often it will be trying to dip into the middle USA. Take a look at the 5 day average for the 30th>4th of January of temperatures at about 5000′ up…this map shows the anomalies (warmer or colder than average)

ecmwf_t850a_5d_noram_41

5000 foot temperature departures. Note that cold air up in Canada…with the warmer air farther north towards the Pole…that cold air is sort of trapped where it is…

Our feature photo is obviously of the fog out there this morning. It was sent in from Leann Schleicher in Easton, MO

15726558_10202417802324323_5538354841992494042_n

Have a Merry Christmas! We don’t have a 5PM news tonight or a morning news tomorrow AM…but we do have the 9/10 PM news tonight and then the 5/9/10 on Christmas Day so I hope you check in either there or via the blog…or via another 1-2 FB lives on my FB page (Joe Lauria Fox 4 Meteorologist)

Joe

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