Week 1 High School Football Scoreboard from PrepsKC

Joe’s Weather Blog: Mild then much colder into next weekend (SUN-1/1)

Happy New Year my friends and thanks so much for reading and spending part of 2016 getting updated on the weather blog. This was the 1st weather blog in KC and one of the longest continuous weather blogs by any TV station in the country. I’ve written thousands of blogs over the years…typing in 10s of millions of words into this format. I’m trying to remember when the 1st blog came out…I want to say sometime in the late 90s…early 2000s…something like that. The formats have changed through time…the blog has gotten more readable with those changes. The capabilities of providing real time maps and models to you regardless of the time you actually devote to reading my missives is what I’m most proud about. It’s been a unique way for me to get my weather thoughts out…to teach you at times the whys, hows and whats of the weather…to share with you why I was wrong about something (something that many meteorologists won’t or are unwilling to do or admit publicly). Goodness knows my forecasts are not perfect…but hopefully this format has given you an opportunity to see why I’m thinking what I thinking. a few blogs are shorter…under 500 words…but most are about 1000 words a piece and I know that takes some time to read through. Each blog takes roughly 60-90 minutes to get out to you…sometimes it’s quicker…sometimes I’ve been known to think about things for a couple of hours! It’s a passion and an obsession so thanks again for reading! Oh and I appreciate everybody being patient with my typos…I type this blog so quickly so I make some “mastokes.” (see what I did there?)

With that all said…we’ll be looking back a bit at 2016 with this blog. I’ll also be giving you some thoughts regarding the cold air ahead and also the snow potential. You folks know I enjoy the snow aspect of my job (other weather folks hate it). It’s great fodder to write about and get excited about…it’s humbling when things go off the rails (hopefully we see that coming) and extremely satisfying when everything works out to a tee!

Forecast:

Tonight: Increasing low clouds with temperatures initially falling this evening then leveling off or rising towards daybreak. Lows in the 30s but rising to near 40° by morning.

Monday: Cloudy skies and hopefully mild for January 2nd. Highs will be about 5-10+° above average again. Some light showers or areas of drizzle will be moving through but it won’t rain all day long. Winds will be increasing from the east or ESE at 10-25 MPH. Areas farther south of KC may see highs closer to 55-60° while farther north of KC highs may only be near 40°. KC will be precariously close to both air masses so there is bust potential for the temperatures.

Tuesday: The cold front that’s been heralded for more than a week I think arrives. Whatever we are at 12AM Tuesday will probably be the high for the day…we should wallow around 30° or into the 20s as the day moves along. Wind chills will decrease as well in the blustery NW winds of 20-30 MPH

Discussion:

Let’s start with the cold weather. After a mild Monday…a strong but not overly strong early January cold front will usher in more arctic air into the region for the week into part of the weekend at least. So it appears the period from the 2nd though the 8th or so is colder than average. I want to note that there will always be some pretty cold air lurking in SW Canada into mid month…just waiting to come southwards. It’s an important consideration when looking at the 1st half of the month overall.

The mild weather tomorrow should play out as long as a warm front lifts far enough northwards. Important to remember that there are some models that DON’T do this…and actually keep KC on the chilly side of the warm front (warm front stays south of the metro) as a result we stay closer to 40-45° on the NAM. The last time we had this scenario the NAM outperformed all other models in the temperature play-out. Take a look at a couple of the models…1st the NAM model forecast for highs tomorrow.

nam_t2m_max_kc_10

NAM model

Now the GFS model…

gfs_t2max_kc_7

GFS forecast

The EURO is more or less the same with highs close to 50°

The effect of these temperatures will be a rather decent warm front setting up…ahead of the front is where you’ll find most of the patches of drizzle and light rain. So the KC area will be in a favorable spot for that.

The the cold air will come into the area later Monday night into Tuesday early AM. There may be some showers with this front as it moves through the region as well. Something to be aware of, depending on how quickly we drop by daybreak Tuesday is the potential of whatever falls with the front coming in…may try to freeze or glaze up with the colder temperatures. Certainly NOT a “set in stone” thing…but something to watch for as we head towards Monday night.

Then we’ll basically be in the cold air for the rest of the week. How cold? Right now I’ve got lows down to near 5°. This will be dependent on clouds and also whether or not there is any snow on the ground…the chance of the later may be later Wednesday night into Thursday.

As far as that goes…I was so desperate to find a model…any model, to give us some eye candy that yesterday I did find a model that actually had a snow storm here on Thursday. Unfortunately it was the Japanese model. I’m serious too! It actually had a 4-8″+ snow here for Thursday. It was on an island though. I was looking for eye candy and I found it :).

It does seem somewhat strange though that we just cant get the right combination of well timed cold and a well timed storm system to create some decent snows locally. Thursday bears watching and we’d be set for a high ratio snowfall which would be light and fluffy and blowing around a whole bunch…but tough to imagine anything more than a dusting to 2″ from that…and that could be a push as well.

We should see some relaxation in the cold over the next weekend. Again remember that the cold air as shown in the following map is just going to be sitting in SW Canada..the map shows the temperature anomalies at around 5000′ or so…

ecm_t850_anom_noram_11

This map is valid on 1/11

Let’s move on…

2016 in KC was the 16th warmest and the 13th wettest. While some parts of the area saw over 65″ of moisture (mostly rain) KCI officially came in with around 48.7″. That’s about 10″ above average

capture

2016 day by day

As far as precipitation goes…

capture

The last 5 years of moisture (above)…2016 is in GREEN

capture

Here is more information from 2016 as a whole…

This is cool…a look at the water vapor in the atmosphere for the whole year…sort of mesmerizing.

I’ve written in the past about the incredible warmth in the arctic region this year…and for the past few years (if not much longer). This community on the north slope of Alaska used to be called Barrow. It has a different name now…but it will always be Barrow to me.

This was a pretty cool tweet for 2016 as a whole from the folks at the NWS in Pleasant Hill…I may try and do something with this tonight…

Our feature photo of the month comes from Steve Wilcox…showing us the 1st sunrise of 2017 in Blue Springs., MO.

15747633_10212029614124078_2804781811598638914_n

Happy New Year.

Joe

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