Joe’s Weather Blog: OK weekend ahead…bumps next week (FRI-1/27)

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Happy TGIF! Even the sun is finally shining on the day. We’ll take it. Temperatures are into the 40-45° range and overall the weekend is going to be OK…we’ll be fighting clouds, especially on Sunday…maybe even a few flakes as well early Sunday.

Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies and chilly with lows in the 20s

Saturday: Mixed clouds and sunshine. Highs in the 40s

Saturday night: There is a chance of some light snow showers coming through the region, especially on the MO side. Lows near 30°

Sunday: Variable clouds and seasonable with highs around 40°

Discussion:

So far this month our temperatures are running about 2° above average. We’ve had 18 days (including today) with above average temperatures…that’s not too bad and it’s actually warmer than last January when temperatures ended up about 1° above average.

 

Month 2015-16 2016-17
DEC +8.2° -1.4°
JAN +.8° +2°
FEB +5.6° ??

The temperatures are a bit tricky to figure out over the next few days. We’re into NW flow aloft. This is allowing weak little shots of chillier air come and go. In between we get a westerly wind flow (like this afternoon). That’s actually a downslope flow of air…so you can warm-up and it appears Monday will be the day we capitalize the most with this set-up. 55-60° could be doable with enough sunshine and mixing.

You can sort of see this effect with the latest surface map showing the temperatures…chillier the farther east you go…and milder through the southern Plains.

sfc

Here is another way of looking at the wind flow right now…via windyty.com

Every so often over the next week or so…we’ll see wind direction switches behind fast moving cold fronts…IF we can time the arrival of these wind shifts…every so often you can sneak in a warmer day…and again my hope is that will be on Monday. Should the winds switch directions earlier (which is always possible in the fast flow)…then the best warmth can be shunted to the SW or south of the area.

The flow though overall is dry mostly. There may be a weak ripple come down early Sunday that could generate some snow showers and I’m still watching something maybe next weekend but when you see the model data crank out the following map for the next 16 days…well you can’t get too excited.

gfs_tprecip_mc_65

Yes…that’s 1/10 of 1 inch. Ohhhhhh so exciting.

It’s not as if the EURO model is that much more thrilling…this goes for the next 10 days…

ecmwf_tprecip_mc_41

Boring…

We should turn chillier towards WED or THU…and we may be setting up for another stretch of gray weather as well by the looks of things heading into next weekend. The EURO still has a wave to track heaving towards Super Bowl Sunday…something to watch…I guess.

Our feature photo comes from @booboo79a …it was a pretty sunrise this morning.

capture

I’ll be at FanFest tomorrow morning from 9AM-11AM with Nicole. Drop by and say Hi! Also there probably won’t be a weather blog tomorrow unless something more interesting shapes up for tomorrow night and early Sunday.

Joe

 

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