Joe’s Weather Blog: Either something or nothing at all (SAT-2/4)

Good afternoon. Windy out there as gusts are clocking in at near 40 MPH in areas…it’s also very cloudy in the region from KC southwards, but we should see more sunshine this afternoon in the KC metro area…towards Sedalia though it may be a struggle for several more hours. Temperatures are warming up but it feels colder with the winds cranking away.

Forecast:

Tonight: Mostly clear skies and chilly with lows down into the upper 20s

Sunday: Actually a pretty nice day with highs around 50°

Monday: Cloudy skies with perhaps a few areas of mist or drizzle scattered through the region. Warmer though with highs approaching 60°

Tuesday: Colder air will start moving into the area during the afternoon. Temperatures will start mild then drop at some point during the day. Maybe a few showers (light). Highs near 55° but dropping when the colder air comes in.

Discussion:

Yesterday was a rare afternoon at work and I couldn’t really think of any good subjects to write about…the weather is rather boring to me personally. Aside from tracking the temperature changes…there aren’t any big or noteworthy systems to track at this point for snow or rain chances…although we continue to watch WED>THU of next week. I won’t waste time on it today though…maybe more on that tomorrow.

So the title of the blog reflects that “boredom” I think. Yes…the temperature gyrations are something to talk about…and actually is or would be more interesting to me…but in a “snow drought” that has persisted for several years it feels like…it just isn’t doing “it” for me personally.

When Mother Nature though gives you wind…you deal with the wind…so let;s talk about what’s happening.

This afternoon we have clouds in the area…although skies are clearing out nicely across northern MO and towards the west of the area. We should see more and more sunshine in the KC area and west/north as the afternoon moves along. Farther southeast of KC…it will be a struggle this afternoon through 3PM or so at least.

sat

There is also a lot of wind out there…and when the sun comes out it may get windier. There have been some grassfires over on the KS side this morning as well with the wind and the dry ground conditions.

The surface map shows the current weather conditions as of the noon hour.

sfc-decode

You can sort of get a better idea on the wind situation by looking at the peak gusts.

capture

It’s blowing pretty good out there, despite the clouds.

The wind is being caused by a change in air pressure. Since the winds are from the south and southwest…this means that high pressure is off to the east and low pressure is towards the west or northwest. Air in the atmosphere flows from high pressure into lower pressure. Sure enough when looking at the isobar map (isobars measure lines of equal pressure) you can see that nicely (if your reading the blog today that is since the following map will update each hour)

The more lines (isobars) concentrated in a “small” area…the more wind. Let’s get roe up close into the KC region.

capture

12PM isobars in the KC area

So the air pressure varies from the SE to the NW. It’s going from about 1028 mbs (30.36″) to 1008 mbs (29.77″) towards SD. That’s a spread of 20 mbs or about 6/10″ on the home barometer. Since air is a gas…it’s always fighting to get to lower pressure from higher pressure. There are complicating forces that are involved as well like the all important coriolus effect…but we’ll stop there.

It’s windy.

Tomorrow will NOT be as windy…especially in the AM as a weak front moves southwards overnight and creeps into the area. This will shunt the pressure changes farther to the SE of the region tomorrow and as a result…less wind! Here is a forecast map for tomorrow. Notice how there are real isobars compared to the maps above in our area. This means lighter winds at the surface for Sunday.

Then on Monday we should go back into a warmer air mass…see highs pop to about 55-60° ahead of a cold front. Moisture will be shallow, only a few thousand feet thick, but it will be prevalent through the day in the form of clouds. There also won’t be a lot of wind on Monday to stir things up…so I didn’t want to get too aggressive in warming things up too much.

Then Tuesday will be an afternoon of transition. we’ll start mild…probably be into the 50s for awhile into the afternoon but then see the colder air spread in before sunset sending temperatures into the 30s before the end of the day Tuesday afternoon from the north to the south.

This cold air will linger through Wednesday and perhaps into Thursday as well before the warmer air rushes back on Friday it appears.

So up and down we go. I touched on the GFS forecast of snow WED>THU…no other model is doing that right now…although they’ve had snow off and on in the data for several days. Like I said…if it looks a bot more interesting…maybe I’ll get into it tomorrow or Monday.

Our feature photo is a beauty today. This from Angelita Crow of the clouds from the other day…a beautiful “mackerel” sunset!

capture

These clouds are a combination of cirrocumulus and altocumulus clouds

Joe

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