Joe’s Weather Blog: Dry spell lengthens…mild spell does too! (SUN-2/12)
Everybody out there was thrilled with the weather yesterday…except one person…yours truly. Why wasn’t I happy…did it have to do with the snow drought that is getting longer by the week? Did it have to do with the fact that I had to work all day long? Nope. It was because I didn’t forecast it accurately enough for my taste. I was banging the drum pretty hard about cooler weather for Saturday. I had my concerns that forecasters were way too warm for the days leading up to Saturday. I have no idea if the flipped to a cooler forecast in the end…but if they did that’s too bad. I was the one who had the most confidence in the cooler outcome…my quote “cold air almost always wins in February” (while true usually) was not a good forecast for yesterday. When I got to work…I sort of saw the error and was adjusting the forecast up into the mid 60s-70° but then the front slipped through KCI…St Joseph was falling to 35° and I thought to myself…there you go…maybe my 55-60° would play out…it didn’t. Everybody rejoiced about the weather except for me.
Tonight: Variable clouds and cooler with lows in the 20s
Monday: Increasing clouds and “mild” with highs 47-50°. There may be some sprinkles or even a very light passing shower in the evening or night. There is a ton of dry air though that will need to be saturated in the lower levels though.
Tuesday (Valentine’s Day): Mostly sunny and milder with highs well into the 50s
I’m not sure which day I’m madder about…Friday or Saturday. Both days had all this potential to be warm and I underestimated each one. The Friday forecast was always going to be about how much wind “mixed” up the air…because the atmosphere was ready to spike warm…and it did. The Saturday forecast was tricky because of the placement of the front and the development or lack thereof of a low cloud deck combined with cooler NE winds. So Mother Nature-2…Joe L-0 Although today will be a near perfect forecast.
As you know when I’m wrong I tell you and more importantly I tell you why…unlike many.
The heat yesterday was impressive…downtown KC tied their record high of 73° set in 1951. It should be noted that KCI was cooler…67° bit areas to the south were warmer…some closed in on 80°.
What happened especially in OK/TX was nutty.
More than a few stations saw record setting highs for the MONTH of February…including Midland and Lubbock, TX.
Closer to home…
As a matter of fact…look at how yesterday stacked up in terms of daily highs for 2/11. The 1’s represent the warmest readings on that date in weather history.
The last time we had measurable snow of more than a trace was 1/5. Crazy, I realize, but true. None is coming in the next 7+ days (to measure at least (under .05″ tomorrow-if that). The other aspect to this is a connecting theme perhaps, and that is a lack of any moisture. There may be a few lighter showers in the region tomorrow evening…but this is the 19th day in a row with a trace or less of moisture. Not a big issue now…but something to pay attention too perhaps in about 45 days or so (the lack of rains in the region). Perhaps that may be something towards the 21st or so…
The overwhelming theme of the forecast into next weekend appears to be the warmer days. Even when cold fronts come through…we’re not cooling down to average values for February. Our average low/high is 23°/42° for today. Our AM low this morning (behind a cold front mind you) was 40°.
As a matter of fact since the 14th of January…every single day has been average or above average in KC except for 3 days this month.
Through yesterday we’re 4.6° above average for FEB…and today will add more to that. When you look at the whole winter though (starting 12/1) this is what you come up with…notice the warmth down south!
For KC though…nothing too crazy…this is our 57th warmest winter. St Louis is having their 9th warmest winter and Wichita is having their 10th warmest. There are a lot of 1’s though down south.
In the northeast part of the country, especially New England and up through Maine…a nasty blizzard is going to be the story there through tomorrow. There will be strong winds too towards the NYC area…so there could be some flight impacts.
The snow has started already…most of what you see below is indeed snowfall. Here is a look at the general radar via NOAA and the precip type radar via Penn State.
Maine appears to be ground zero for the worst of the blizzard…snow and wind!
So they get another big winter storm after a “quiet” winter…and we still are getting nothing here for another week except for more warm temperatures. The only question is how close to we get to 70° starting Thursday through next weekend. The records from the 16th to the 19th are 74° each day…the record on the 20th is 70°. Would I be shocked if we are in the zip code of record warmth…nope.
There have been some great photos sent in lately of the rising sun and the setting sun. Today’s feature photo comes from Connie Fidler…I thought we’d show you a spring flower…or at least something close