Joe’s Weather Blog: Another record high day Wednesday (TUE-2/21)

Good morning…we’re 1 week away from seeing whether or not this February will be the 1st February with no snow in Kansas City. Thus far we’re stuck at 0″ for the month…and that hasn’t happened since 1892. We’re also almost 10° above average for the month for temperatures and now are entering into the warmest FEB months ever…although the weather for the last few days of the month will be closer to average so we’ll see where we end up. I’ve heard anecdotal reports of mosquitoes out there in some low lying areas especially around stagnant waters…which seems rather odd in February! I noticed that some well cared for grass in subdivisions are showing green-up now.

Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny north and west of I-35 with clouds farther to the SE. Temperatures may be closer to 70° or so. I’m not as bullish as others for the super warmth forecast for the afternoon. Still though some 25+° above average. Light winds as well. The record today is 75° in 1935

Tonight: Fair skies with lows in the 40s

Wednesday: Odds favor a record breaker. The record now is 73° in 1917 and 1982. We may shatter that record by almost 5°. Highs 75-80°.

Thursday: A bit trickier depending on the placement of a front that will lie east to west. IF it’s south of KC and we have more of an east wind…highs may only be near 60° or so…IF it’s closer to US 36…highs again may be near 70-75°. Will the cold front come through before early Friday AM?. Where the front set’s up may also create more low clouds and perhaps some mist as well…

Friday: Falling temperature into the 30s to around 40° with blustery conditions. Reality comes back for FEB!

Discussion:

I wasn’t even going to write a blog again today since I’m sort of struggling for something to write about…I feel like I’m just repeating myself over and over again. Sort of like the movie Groundhog Day. by the way…remember that 6 more weeks of winter forecast…

So I thought today would be a good day for a bit of perspective…which means a number heavy blog is coming your way. We’re running 10.1° above average for the month of February at this point. It’s really an incredible number. For the 1st 20 days of the month…compared to the first 20 days of every February in KC weather history…we’re now #3 in warmth and we should creep up to the 2 spot by Friday.

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The biggest thing it seems has been the warmth temperatures during the day especially…and it’s here that aside from 1954 showing up…we’re a solid #2 in terms of warmth for high temperatures.

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As a matter of fact…when looking back over the last 2 weeks and the month to date…comparisons to weather like ours on a more “average” basis…you come up with cities such as Birmingham, AL (last 2 weeks) and Oklahoma City (month to date). That too is pretty incredible.

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In the big picture…the number of record highs this year are well above 5000. The low temperature records are really trailing…so you can see overall it’s been warm this year so far.

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The issue with the data above…is it takes stations with a 30 year minimum history to them. That’s a really SHORT Period Of Record (POR).

 

The lack of moisture though is concerning. Last night I sent out this tweet regarding the overnight run of the GFS model…this is for the next 16 days and it wasn’t a good look. The EURO model wasn’t quite as pessimistic though.

There are actually signs of a least some storms showing up…whether or not we can get them to produce anything more than showers around these parts remains to be seen though.

So we have two things going on…the warmth…and the dryness that continues to expand through the region. Yesterday for the most part rain amounts were under 1/10″ for the vast majority of the region. Dry weather in JAN/FEB is not that unusual. As a matter of fact…we’re the 36th driest in KC in our weather history going back to the 1880s.

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As the above map shows…we’re not alone either…especially on the MO side.

Now when the vegetation is dormant, like it mostly is now, it’s not that big of an issue. Water needs are minimal. As the spring green-up commences…and does so earlier at this rate…then water needs will be increasing. The trends are concerning though…because there is a way to measure the Spring “green-up” and that green-up is running about 3 weeks ahead of schedule.

The darker RED colors show that the early leafing plants are running 3 weeks + ahead of schedule. The closer we are to the RED coloring the closer we are to an earlier green-up.

Another part of this is the lack of snow…this is helping to allow temperatures to really pop, especially in the upper Midwest.

Let’s zoom in on the left side map…

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All those yellows and oranges are some rather significant snow departures.

Interestingly there may be near blizzard conditions in that general area later this week!

There have been a ton of record highs up there lately as well!

So will this end up being the tombstone for the winter in KC?

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Our feature photo comes from Kellie Lewis Cobern and was taken down towards the Lake Of the Ozarks.

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Joe

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