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Joe’s Weather Blog: A reminder that it’s February after all (THU-2/23)

Good afternoon. Yesterday I talked about how today had the potential of seeing a rather large temperature bust because of the location of a warm front that was going to remain south of KC during the day. The potential 70° day will be lucky to get to 60°. Areas farther south of KC however will see highs well into the 70s. Weird day and mostly another dry day ion the region and that is creating some drought issues out there. More on that in the discussion.

Forecast:

Tonight: A cold front will come through the area overnight. We should stay mild (50s) for the evening and then see falling temperatures towards daybreak into the 40-45° range. Outside shot of a passing shower with this transition in the KC area.

Friday: Blustery and colder with temperatures falling into the 30s with wind chills in the 20s in the afternoon. There may be some random drops or flakes out there as well…especially towards N MO.

Saturday: Nicer but a had freeze in the morning with lows 20-25° and highs 40-45°.

Sunday: Clouds with a chance of some rain and/or rain/snow showers at times. Highs 40-45°

Discussion:

Darn warm fronts. 1PM temperatures show quite the range of values from the north to the south.

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The 70s are expanding from near Sedalia to south of Butler to south of Ottawa southwards. That warmer air will be pressing northwards during the afternoon and will make it towards the far southern areas of the KC Metro. Areas north of I-70 though may not pop into that warmer air mass this afternoon.

There is a surface low out across SW KS as I type this blog…it will be moving towards the KC region overnight and the colder air will start coming in behind the storm tomorrow.

Considering the warmth of late…sort of interesting that storms aren’t firing up with this change…though that will happen tomorrow towards the OH Valley. Take this same situation into the later spring…and we’d have severe weather on our hands. These interesting, and potentially (into the spring season) more volatile set-ups  is something that has occurred lately and leads me to wonder if we’ll have a more active severe weather season.

While we don’t want that aspect for getting spring rains…we do want some rain. Today is essentially the 31st straight no or low precip day in the region. There have been some showers farther north today but in KC we didn’t get much to measure. The latest drought report has an increasing area of “moderate” drought conditions expanding on the MO side. On the KS side the main concern is for far SW KS

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So far we’ve had 1.45″ of moisture (mostly rain) this year. This isn’t terrible at this point but the combination of the warm weather (11°+) ahead of average in FEB is not helping the cause. The winds that will blow tomorrow won’t help either. While there may be some drips or flakes…it won’t help the situation.

As far as anything more substantial…I’m not too excited. The GFS is grabbing onto a stronger wave zipping through and generating 1/2″+ of moisture on Sunday (mostly snow actually). The NAM model has a little something…rains and or some wintry combo and the EURO says nothing as does the Canadian model. I’m not overly excited that this will turn into that significant…maybe we can get some moisture over 1/10″ or so. Don’t hold your breathe though. IF you’re a snow lover…the GFS model

I’ve been dying to try this feature out…it’s a slider that shows the difference between two graphics. So when you slide the slider towards the right side you see the EURO model and when you go left it’s the GFS.

What you’re seeing is the 500 mb (around 18,000 feet) forecast maps for 6AM Sunday. The dips (U-shaped) are waves in the atmosphere. The opposite (upside down U’s) are ridges. Dips create “lift” ahead of the dip…while ridges typically are more connected to sinking air and drier weather. Notice the LARGE difference in the dip on the GFS model towards the Grand Canyon compared to not much of anything on the EURO model.

This is why the GFS is franking out 1/4-1/2″ of moisture in the region. That sharper “dip” means the air is lifting more in the Plains region. There is also a low level jet that develops helping the lift be even more efficient in creating precipitation. Since the EURO really doesn’t have much of a wave…it’s not creating the lift to begin with. At this point we’re more inclined to go with a blend of the NAM and EURO…there may be a few showers or flakes around…but nothing too significant…although it may not be the nicest day with struggling temperatures.

The system in question is way up into western Canada…so it bears watching. The GFS ensembles are trying to sniff something out as well…so while I’m not thrilled with the set-up…IF that wave is something more significant…it will bear watching over the weekend.

It does appear we should warm up on Tuesday ahead of another shot of chillier weather WED. The EURO brings highs well into the 70s again on Tuesday…I’m not that bullish right now but it does appear to be warm. We may get some rain from that transition although, although it may not be noteworthy either.

Meanwhile up to the north of KC…another big snowstorm after record heat a couple of days ago!

 

and out west more rain over the next week.

The onslaught of rain/snow out across the western US has been incredible this month and really for the last couple of months.

A lot of weather out there…just none of it really here…at least so far.

Our feature photo comes from Alex Pappas from Heritage Park, KS

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Joe

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