Joe’s Weather Blog: More warm days…suggestions of rain (SAT-3/18)
Good afternoon. Bright and sunny as I type this weather blog as a seasonable day is unfolding in the KC region this afternoon. Temperatures this morning were in the mid 30s and this afternoon should max out in the lower 60s. The dry weather continues…and while the next few days are mostly dry there will be some chances of moisture. Many won’t see a drop but some may.
Tonight: Clear early then increasing clouds overnight. Lows near 40°
Sunday: There will be some scattered t/storms out there during the 1st part of the day. Not all will get some beneficial rains. The best chance is till lunch or so then we should start to clear out, warm-up, get windier and see highs pop into the 70s. Areas NE of KC and north of KC may NOT be as warm.
Monday: A warm start…55-60° then mixed clouds and sunshine with north winds. Highs may still be near 70°
So the maps today are screaming spring weather in the Plains. Multiple fast moving storms will create conditions more favorable for rains. The issue, as always, will be the various set-ups, timing, and severe weather scenarios that may present themselves into the 1st week of April. Some of the set-ups aren’t going to work out well for us, in terms of rain, others though should as the atmospheric moisture becomes more abundant in the region and with these systems tap that moisture…we should get beneficial rainfall.
We need it. Through today this is the 12th driest start to a year in the KC area.
Obviously it’s dry…and as I mentioned in the last blog, while there was no change in the drought report for MO/KS of significance in the latest update…as the vegetation comes out of dormancy and the terrain starts to green up more and more, the water demands will be increasing quite a bit over the next couple of weeks. Our averages for moisture each week now start to increase as well. As a matter of fact over the next 3 months…through the end of May…we go from an average of around .08″/day now to .17″/day by the last day of May…so we double the average daily moisture.
It has been a struggle locally though. There was actually a 10+ day period in JAN that we were running a surplus for 2017…but you can see in the top part of the following chart we’ve been in a deficit situation for quite some time.
On a more regional basis..the dryness is rather evident.
Notice the 2 areas of max dryness…towards the I-90 corridor in the upper Midwest and around the I-70 corridor. In between there were some decent areas of snow that helped create a weird “buffer” zone between the 2 areas of dryness.
Over the next few weeks though a more active pattern appears to be shaping up. This will allow storms to get into the Plains states and tap into a more prevalent moisture flow coming up from the Gulf region. Let’s look at the GFS model in 5 day increments…
The 1st day days…
The next 5 days…
and the last 5 days…into early April
and the total over the next 15 days put together
and for the KC area in particular
Takeaways…1-3″ of moisture in the KC area. Takeaway #2…these amounts could be very underdone in areas due to the increasing chances of convection bring us the rainfall. Takeaway #3…we average about 1 1/4-1/2″ of moisture in the next 15 days anyway. Takeaway #4) notice to the SW of KC and Emporia…the lowering of total moisture…to below 1″. This tells me that obviously none of this is a slam dunk for the region as a whole.
Our 1st opportunity of something a bit more widespread and significant will arrive NEXT Friday. There may be some drips and drabs before then but they look to be mostly light events.
Our feature photo comes from Scott Shaffer of the beautiful sunset over Lenexa Lake last night!
Have a great weekend!